Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

page 54 of 188 RIVM report 461502024
thermal capacity in base-load operation runs with an average load-factor BLF T , the required
thermal capacity to generate the base-load demand, ECap bT , is :
(&DS
E7
*(O' * )UDF%/
=
− β *((&DS
* %/) + (&DS * %/) + (&DS
E+
+
β * %/)
7
E18
18
E15
* %/)
15
)
MWe (4.2)
The total required base-load capacity is calculated as ECap b = ECap H + ECap NU + ECap NR +
ECap bT . It is possible that ECap bT < 0. In this case ECap bT is taken zero and the excess nonthermal
capacity, ECap exc,N , is assumed to be operated in peak-load. The capacity available for
peak-load, ECap p , equals ECap inst - ECap b . Its load factor is calculated as:
[ * (1 − )UDF%/) /((&DS
* ), 3/) ]
3/) = 0,1 *(O'
β
(4.3)
S
with PLF max an assumed upper limit for the load factor of peak-load capacity.
The choice of FracBL, BLF and PLF can be calibrated to the historical value of the (regional)
over-all system load factor. In first instance, FracBF and BLF are kept constant over time,
whereas PLF is calculated to gauge demand and production under the condition PLF < PLF max ,
as described above. One may wish to simulate measures to increase the over-all system load
factor (e.g. load management) by increasing PLF max . Alternatively, one may incorporate other
characteristics for N-options by a change of BLF over time (e.g. lower values if photovoltaics
have a larger share).
This formulation takes into account that a capacity shortage may develop. If this occurs, it
generates demand for additional capacity to be built according to the equation for required
capacity expansion (k=H, T, NU, NR):
(&DS
RUG
= ((&DSE
+ ( Pr RG
S
/( 3/)
max
* β ) − (&DSLQVW
+ ∑ (&DSN
/ 7/7N
) MWe (4.4)
N
in which the last term accounts for depreciated capacity. In the actual calculation, an
extrapolated demand GElD for the calculation of ECap b
34 is used and a construction time CT k
is taken into account. For the calculation of the electricity produced in the peak-load, it is
assumed that the excess non-thermal-capacity (NU or NR) is used at the PLF-value and the
remainder is supplied with T-capacity. A desired reserve margin factor is used to ensure an
adequate level of system reliability - neither too high nor too low.
)XHOXVHDQGFDSDFLW\H[SDQVLRQ
What type of capacity will be ordered? This is determined by the following allocation rules:
• For K\GURSRZHU, capacity is exogenously prescribed on the basis of a desired fraction of the
estimated technical hydropower potential in the region;
max
34 Demand is anticipated over a time horizon of TH years on the basis of a trend factor of the form (1+r) TH with r the annual
growth rate in the past TH years.