Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

page 128 of 188 RIVM report 461502024
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1CAN 2USA 3CAm 4SAm 5 NAf 6 WAf 7 EAf 8 SAf 9 WE 10 CE 11 FSU 12 ME 13 SA 14 EA 15 SEa 16 OC 17 Jap
1 CAN 0.0 2.4 5.7 9.6 11.5 10.1 15.6 13.9 7.8 8.6 10.1 18.6 14.8 13.0 15.7 14.1 10.9
2 USA 2.4 0.0 2.7 8.4 10.5 7.4 15.5 12.6 5.9 9.8 11.1 18.8 15.9 13.4 15.7 13.4 11.3
3 CAM 5.7 2.7 0.0 7.3 12.1 11.0 17.1 14.2 10.5 11.8 13.2 19.1 18.8 17.0 21.6 16.2 15.0
4 SAM 9.6 8.4 7.3 0.0 10.8 6.6 12.5 7.0 9.9 12.2 12.6 22.7 15.8 19.5 17.2 15.8 17.7
5 NAf 11.5 10.5 12.1 10.8 0.0 8.7 6.0 12.3 3.3 1.4 1.8 9.0 8.0 16.5 10.8 19.8 16.3
6 WAf 10.1 7.4 11.0 6.6 8.7 0.0 9.8 4.3 8.1 9.6 10.1 14.2 12.7 19.0 15.1 19.1 20.5
7 EAf 15.6 15.5 17.1 12.5 6.0 9.8 0.0 5.4 9.0 6.2 6.6 4.4 4.2 12.1 6.7 12.5 12.1
8 SAf 13.9 12.6 14.2 7.0 12.3 4.3 5.4 0.0 11.4 11.4 11.7 9.9 8.4 14.7 10.8 24.0 16.2
9 WE 7.8 5.9 10.5 9.9 3.3 8.1 9.0 11.4 0.0 1.7 2.7 12.0 10.9 19.4 13.7 22.7 19.2
10 CE 8.6 9.8 11.8 12.2 1.4 9.6 6.2 11.4 1.7 0.0 0.5 9.2 8.2 16.6 11.0 19.9 16.5
11 FSU 10.1 11.1 13.2 12.6 1.8 10.1 6.6 11.7 2.7 0.5 0.0 9.7 8.4 1.8 5.7 9.7 1.2
12 ME 18.6 18.8 19.1 22.7 9.0 14.2 4.4 9.9 12.0 9.2 9.7 0.0 4.7 11.0 7.3 13.0 12.7
13 SA 14.8 15.9 18.8 15.8 8.0 12.7 4.2 8.4 10.9 8.2 8.4 4.7 0.0 6.6 2.9 10.5 8.2
14 EA 13.0 13.4 17.0 19.5 16.5 19.0 12.1 14.7 19.4 16.6 1.8 11.0 6.6 0.0 3.9 8.5 2.1
15 SEa 15.7 15.7 21.6 17.2 10.8 15.1 6.7 10.8 13.7 11.0 5.7 7.3 2.9 3.9 0.0 7.8 5.6
16 OC 14.1 13.4 16.2 15.8 19.8 19.1 12.5 24.0 22.7 19.9 9.7 13.0 10.5 8.5 7.8 0.0 8.3
17 Jap 10.9 11.3 15.0 17.7 16.3 20.5 12.1 16.2 19.2 16.5 1.2 12.7 8.2 2.1 5.6 8.3 0.0
7DEOH indicates that the import constraints for oil and natural gas are only active (values
lower than 1.0) in a limited number of regions, for which it is known that they have been closed
of the global market in specific time periods. For coal, more import constraints have been
introduced.
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1CAN 2USA 3CAm 4SAm 5 NAf 6 WAf 7 EAf 8 SAf 9 WE 10 CE 11 FSU 12 ME 13 SA 14 EA 15 SEa 16 OC 17 Jap
Coal 1971 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
1995 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0
Oil 1971 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.0 1.0 0.7 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0
1995 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.0 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0
NG 1971 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
1995 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0
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)LJXUH shows the final indicated market shares at the Western European oil market as
calculated by the model. It shows a continues trend with slightly declining Middle East market
share and increasing market shares of domestically produced oil. This trend is in TIMER
mainly driven by the assumed reduction in production costs in Western Europe. The trend does
resemble historic trends in imports reasonably well. To give an indication of the overall
performance of the trade model for oil, gas and coal – ILJXUHVDQGcompare model
results for the average net imports of oil, gas and coal in the 1970-1985 and 1986-1995 with the
historic data for the same period. The figures show all trade models to reproduce the historic
trends and the main importing and exporting regions very well.