Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

RIVM report 461502024 page 61 of 188
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Calibrating the formulation for hydropower generation is rather simple. First, the potential
hydropower capacity is assigned to each region (7DEOH ). Historical capacity c.q. scenario
values are introduced as a fraction of this potential - thus, an exogenous time-path for installed
hydropower capacity is introduced. This fraction is the variable used for calibration. Each MWe
produces with a load-factor which may vary from year to year; its historical value is used to
calculate electricity generation.
7DEOH gives an overview of the potential hydropower capacity and hydropower generation
(Moreira and Poole, in Johansson, 1993). Available data on actual capacity indicates that the
average load factor is in the range of 0.3-0.6. 7DEOH also indicates the potential capacity
used in TIMER. For all regions we assume a technical lifetime of 100 years, whereas the
specific investment costs range from 1500 to 3000 $/kWe (7DEOH). The differences reflect
different endowments and utilisation rates.
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Calibration for electricity from nuclear (NU) and renewable (NR) capacity is derived from the
product of installed capacity and the load factor. Installed capacity on its turn results from the
parameter settings for each region: i.e. 1) an exogenous RD&D program (that can force shares
in investments above the shares set by the market formulation) and 2) changes in electricity
generation costs that influence the cost-based competition. The latter is influenced by 1) a timedependent
learning factor π and 2) depletion dynamics (insignificant for the calibration period
but important in future simulations). The calibration has to be done in an iterative way.