Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

page 88 of 188 RIVM report 461502024 In terms of prices, the trends in coal prices are reproduced fairly well in both regions ()LJXUH ). This suggests that the larger part of the demand-supply-trade dynamics is performing rather well and that the failure to reproduce surface mining output also has to do with our modelling of the investment decision. &RDOSULFH86*- USA:data USA:sim. SAfr:data SAfr:sim. )LJXUH&RDOSULFHVLQWKH86$DQG6RXWKHUQ$IULFD 'LUHFWLRQVIRUIXWXUHUHVHDUFK • We have introduced a distinction between surface and underground coal based on the relevance for emissions and the different dynamics for production costs. As it turns out, this formulation in combination with the coal trade module easily gives instabilities, for instance in a situation that the assumedly hard coal (underground) or brown coal (surface) gets depleted and a region has to switch from one coal production method to the other. Possible improvements are the dynamic transition from underground to surface coal mineable resources as a function of geological characteristics (thickness and depth of layers) and technology (digging machinery). • In <strong>TIMER</strong>, coal is currently mainly used to produce solid fuels. However, coal can also be used to produce synfuels or other alternatives, possible in combination with clean coal technologies. Currently, we model ‘synfuels’ by a time-dependent exogenous scenario file – but it might be considered to more explicitly model these options. For instance, it can be desirable to construct a long-term supply cost curve on more parameters than estimated production costs only: distance to user or trade centres, special products or techniques as with coking coal or coal-bed methane etc. • The modelling of traditional biofuels – and in particular the substitution with commercial biofuels – can be improved. Obviously, this is driven as much by the local resource situation – simulated to some extent in the IMAGE Terrestrial Environment System (TES) model – as by rational-choice market dynamics. The processes of urbanisation, of opening up of higher-income strata for commercial fuels such as kerosene and the informal exchange processes among the low-income segments in low-consumption regions should be better understood.
RIVM report 461502024 page 89 of 188 7KH/LTXLG)XHODQG*DVHRXV)XHOVXSSO\VXEPRGHOV ,QWURGXFWLRQ This chapter describes the supply models for liquid and gaseous fuels. These two submodels have basically the same structure, and describe how demand for liquid and gaseous fuels is met by fossil and biomass-based alternative fuels. During this century, crude oil and a variety of fuels derived from oil have provided an increasing proportion of the world’s energy needs. Oil and oil products are among the most widely traded commodities in the world with 80% of all oil produced being traded internationally (Subroto, 1993). During its exploitation there have been several warnings of impending oil scarcity, but – and possibly in response to such warning – new oil finds have always been enough to keep a rather steady ratio of 10-15 years between identified reserves and annual production. For the future, several (potential) alternatives exist, such as coal-based liquid fuels, biomass-derived fuels such as ethanol and deposits of non-conventional oil (oil shales and tar sands) which could become a viable large-scale alternative in the more distant future. The production of liquid fuels requires a large and steady investment flow. Given the domination of private capital in the industry, oil business is dominated by market-oriented dynamics 50 . However, as the past has shown, national governments are important co-actors if only because in many countries, oil production and/or oil taxes are a large or even dominant source of government and export income (Gupta, 1995). From the perspective of energy demand, oil (products] is of special importance for the transport sector which is nowadays almost universally dominated by gasoline-, diesel- en kerosene-based combustion engines and turbines and which is growing relentlessly. Other important consumers of oil (products) are electric power plants (cf. EPG-model in Chapter 4) and industry. Since the 1930s natural gas has become an important commercial fuel, first in the USA later in Europe and Russia. Its use was, among others, stimulated by discoveries of large reserves, foremost the giant fields in northwestern Europe and northern Russia. Convenience of use gives it a clear premium value. As result of increasing demand, flaring of natural gas is becoming less common but still accounts for an estimated 10% of world production. The reserve base of natural gas has grown faster than for crude oil: at present there is an abundance of low-cost natural gas fields. The main impediment for further introduction are the high transport costs and the need for large-scale and capital-intensive distribution networks. As with oil, there may be vast additional resources in the form of among others clathrates in deep reservoirs (Lee, 1988; Vries, 1989a). Various alternatives exist for both liquid and gaseous fuels. Coal liquefaction is often mentioned as alternative for oil-based products, but up to now it has not become a commercially viable option at today’s energy prices. A more attractive option apparently is conversion of coal into Synthetic Natural Gas (SNG) to be burnt in integrated systems for 50 The combined annual sales of four multinationals in the oil-system: Exxon, Royal Dutch/Shell, General Motors and Ford in the early 1990s - about 450 10 9 $ - exceeded the GDP of the 1.1 billion people living in India and Indonesia. 51 This is not only true for OPEC-countries like the Arab countries, Venezuela, Nigeria, Mexico and Indonesia, but also [for oil and gas] for countries like Norway, Britain and The Netherlands.
Page 1 and 2:
RIVM report 461502024 2001 7KH7DUJH
Page 3 and 4:
RIVM report 461502024 page 3 of 188
Page 5 and 6:
Page 7 and 8:
Page 9 and 10:
Page 11 and 12:
Page 13 and 14:
Page 15 and 16:
Page 17 and 18:
Page 19 and 20:
Page 21 and 22:
Page 23 and 24:
Page 25 and 26:
Page 27 and 28:
Page 29 and 30:
Page 31 and 32:
Page 33 and 34:
Page 35 and 36:
Page 37 and 38: RIVM report 461502024 page 37 of 18
Page 87: RIVM report 461502024 page 87 of 18
Page 139 and 140:
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
Page 145 and 146:
Page 147 and 148:
Page 149 and 150:
Page 151 and 152:
Page 153 and 154:
Page 155 and 156:
Page 157 and 158:
Page 159 and 160:
Page 161 and 162:
Page 163 and 164:
Page 165 and 166:
Page 167 and 168:
Page 169 and 170:
Page 171 and 172:
Page 173 and 174:
Page 175 and 176:
Page 177 and 178:
Page 179 and 180:
Page 181 and 182:
Page 183 and 184:
Page 185 and 186:
Page 187 and 188:
show all

Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) Model, Technical ...

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?