Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada

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Appendix A—Detail on Calculations of the Ontario Model Exhibit A-8 Probabilities of Total and Partial Permanent Disability by Injury Severity Incidence of permanent disability Total Partial Injuries: Major 0.0162 0.1493 Minor 0.0006 0.0115 Minimal 0.0003 0.0058 Source: Databook on Nonfatal Injury: Incidence, Costs and Consequences by Ted R. Miller, Nancy M. Pindus, John B. Douglass, Shelli B. Rossman, May 1995: Using these probabilities we estimate the number of total and partial permanent disabilities by severity of injury and collision severity. Results for 2004 are provided in Exhibit A-9. Note that the exhibit identifies fractional total disabilities within a year. In the case of 0.3 total disabilities from minimal injuries under the fatal category this should be interpreted as one total disability approximately each three years (1 injury/0.3 injury per year =3.3 years). 2. Number of activity-days and work-days lost We estimate the days of lost activity from motor vehicle collisions from data from the Passenger Car Survey (PCS) of Transport Canada. The data are for the period 1984 to 1989 inclusive for all of Canada and measure days of work lost including those days lost by persons engaged in household work. The PSC was discontinued in the early 1990s. Data discussed in this section was originally used in our 1994 study. More detail on the survey methods can be found in this earlier report. Our estimates of average days lost differ depending on whether the analysis is for our DFE or WTP analysis. This is as a result of the underlying rationale of the DFE and WTP approaches. TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research 129
Analysis and Estimation of the Social Cost of Motor Vehicle Collisions in Ontario Exhibit A-9 Total and Partial Permanent Disabilities by Injury Severity— Number of Disabilities (2004) Collision Severity Fatal Injury PDO TOTAL Total disabilities: Major 5.1 80 86 Minor 0.9 35 36 Minimal 0.3 17 18 ALL 6.4 133 140 Partial disabilities: Major 47 741 788 Minor 18 680 698 Minimal 6 336 341 ALL 71 1756 1828 Discounted future earnings place a value on lost productive time. Productive time would include work-time, household duties and in-school time. This is the framework of the Transport Canada data which records a zero for lost time if the individual is not working, not in school, or less than five years old. Also, a zero is recorded if less than a full “work” day is lost through injury. For those not in these “non-worker/student” groups (74.4% in Ontario, based on 1991 Census data (the closest year to the data in question), we assume a recorded zero will imply one-half day of loss if a work-day. We assume that the probability of the day of injury being a work-day is 220/365. For the DFE analysis, we estimate the average number of “work” days lost by injury severity at 0.2 for injuries that are minimal, 6.5 days for injuries that are minor, and 45 days for injuries that are major. Our estimate for major is based on an assumed value for injuries of more than 30 days. These values do not include work-days lost by those who suffer total or partial disabilities as a result of their injuries. For the WTP analysis, we value activity days and not work days. An individual will place the same value on a day of activity lost through injury whether that day would have been spent working or not working. We therefore reduce the number of zeros recorded in the data set by the proportion of individuals not working, not at school or less than five years old. We assume that the length of days lost would be similar for those in this group and those outside of this group. We therefore reassign zeros for those not working based on the distribution of days lost for those who are working. Further, we adjust days of work lost (recorded in the data) to days of activity lost using the factor (365/220). 130 TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research
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TP 14800F Analysis and Estimation o
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APPENDIX A: DETAIL ON CALCULATIONS
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• Large truck. Collisions involvi
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ABBREVIATIONS CAC Criteria Air Cont
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Analysis and Estimation of the Soci
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III ONTARIO MODEL This chapter desc
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Ontario Model redistribution. Simil
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Ontario Model • Pedestrian Injure
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Ontario Model Based on this analysi
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Ontario Model Step 3 Allocate addit
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Ontario Model damaged based on this
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Ontario Model 1. Number of total an
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Ontario Model 2.99; specialist—1.
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Ontario Model 5. Tow trucks Tow tru
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Ontario Model Exhibit III-5 Core WT
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Ontario Model We combine this value
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Ontario Model 6. Ambulance The Onta
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Ontario Model individuals who self-
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Ontario Model threatening injury, p
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Ontario Model d) Additional Polluti
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Ontario Model VARIABLE DATA LOST TI
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Ontario Model We have no data to gu
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V ONTARIO SUB-MODELS AND THEIR SOCI
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Ontario Sub-Models and Their Social
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Appendix D—Value of Human Consequ
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APPENDIX E: REFERENCES Audrey, J. a
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Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada

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