Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada

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APPENDIX B: MAKING CHANGES TO THE MODELS This appendix provides examples of typical applications of the models. These are provided for the Ontario Model, Ontario Sub-Models, and Canadian Jurisdictions Models, and WS&IB models. The first section identifies changes that can be made which will affect all models equally. A final section discusses the possibility for more advanced changes to the models. Cell references are identified using standard notation in Excel spreadsheets. For example A!D15 refers to column D, row 5 in spreadsheet A. A. CHANGES AFFECTING ALL MODELS The models are a series of Excel spreadsheets. Data found in spreadsheet A— Assumptions and Values and B—Calculations will affect all models. Those that are most likely to be changed in the normal application of the model are described in this section. (Other changes to the model that go beyond “normal” applications of the model are discussed in the final section of this Appendix.) 1. Year of social value (A!D15) The year that the analyst would like social values reported in is recorded in A!D15. In the current model this year is set at 2004. Entering a new year between 2000 and 2015, in place of 2004, will result in an automatic recalculation to values in this new year. The model uses three separate price indices for values related to human consequences (Statistics Canada, The Labour Market, 71-222-XWE), health care costs (Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index, Health Care Services), and all other cost items (Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index, All Items). Actual values for these indices are recorded for years 2000 to 2005 and extrapolated values for these series for 2006 to 2015. (Changes to these indices are discussed in the final section of this appendix.) 2. Valuation method, scenario for human consequences (A!D20) The analyst has control over which valuation method and cost scenario, if the willingness-to-pay method, is used to calculate values for human consequences. This is done by typing in the following short forms in cell A!D20.Doing so returns appropriate values for human consequences based on the valuation method or whether the low, medium or high scenario is used for the willingness-to-pay method. TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research 159
Analysis and Estimation of the Social Cost of Motor Vehicle Collisions in Ontario Enter DFE WTP-H WTP-L WTP-M OTHER For valuation method yielding Discounted Future Earnings High estimate using Willingness to Pay Low estimate using Willingness to Pay Medium estimate using Willingness to Pay Analyst-specified values The “OTHER” command allows the analyst to employ user-specified values for human consequences. The analyst enters “OTHER” in cell A!D20 and a user-specified Value for Social Life (VSL) into cell A!B36. All other values for human consequences are calculated based on the VSL following the willingness-to-pay approach. In the current model a VSL of $5,000,000 (2004 $) is used in the “OTHER” default setting. 3. Better/more recent data for social values The remainder of Spreadsheet A lists data we gathered related to the social costs of non-human consequences of collisions. If more recent or better data comes available data in Spreadsheet A can be updated. When such updates are made the analyst should ensure that values are recorded in 2004$ in Spreadsheet A. (Valued parameters to be expressed in 2004 $ are noted by a boxed cell in Spreadsheet A.) This is because the model automatically adjusts all values for the year that social costs are to be reported in (as discussed in Section 1 above) based on values for each valued item reported in the common base of 2004 $. Price indices, noted earlier, will assist in conversion from other base years to 2004 $. B. CHANGES TO THE ONTARIO MODEL The current model is base on data on the characteristics of motor vehicle collisions in 2004. These unadjusted data originally obtained from ORSAR are entered into Spreadsheet O1—unadjusted data. Collision characteristics data can be replaced by similar data for other years. In so doing the model automatically updates all calculations based on the new collision data input into Spreadsheet O1. 1 For example data for 2005 can be input in place of the current model’s 2004 data in Spreadsheet O1. The analyst should also record the year that the new data represents in cell O1!A2. This will automatically record the year for the collision data in other spreadsheets. 1 Note that unadjusted and adjusted data for Ontario collisions for 2004 are also recorded in Spreadsheet B—Calculations. Calculations in the model are based on the data that appear in Spreadsheet B and should not be altered.) 160 TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research
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TP 14800F Analysis and Estimation o
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APPENDIX A: DETAIL ON CALCULATIONS
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• Large truck. Collisions involvi
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ABBREVIATIONS CAC Criteria Air Cont
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Analysis and Estimation of the Soci
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III ONTARIO MODEL This chapter desc
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Ontario Model redistribution. Simil
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Ontario Model • Pedestrian Injure
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Ontario Model Based on this analysi
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Ontario Model Step 3 Allocate addit
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Ontario Model damaged based on this
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Ontario Model 1. Number of total an
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Ontario Model 2.99; specialist—1.
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Ontario Model 5. Tow trucks Tow tru
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Ontario Model Exhibit III-5 Core WT
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Ontario Model We combine this value
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Ontario Model 6. Ambulance The Onta
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Ontario Model individuals who self-
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Ontario Model threatening injury, p
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V ONTARIO SUB-MODELS AND THEIR SOCI
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Ontario Sub-Models and Their Social
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