Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada

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Social Cost of Motor Vehicle Collisions in Ontario D. COMPARISON OF SOCIAL COSTS ESTIMATES FOR 2004 AND 1990 Estimates of the social cost of motor vehicle collisions in Ontario for 2004 use a similar methodology to that employed by the estimates for 1990. We compare the results of the two studies in this section. The comparison we make uses the willingness to pay approach and low estimate scenario (this results in the same modelling approach to the value of human consequences in the two studies) and excludes cost items for court costs and traffic delays not estimated in the earlier study. This comparison allows us to focus on relative changes in the cost items between the two estimates. IV-4. The distribution of total costs by comparable cost component is noted in Exhibit Exhibit IV-4 Comparison of Social Cost Estimates for 2004 and 1990 Social costs in: 2004 1990 Fatalities 62.1% 68.1% Injuries 13.1% 13.5% Property damage 18.4% 14.7% Hospital/Health care 1.3% 1.4% Police 0.9% 0.4% Fire 0.9% 0.1% Ambulance 0.3% 0.1% Tow trucks 1.0% 0.2% Out-of-pocket 2.1% 1.6% A review by cost components suggests: • The value of fatalities and injuries both declined in the overall estimates of social cost from 1990 to 2004. In terms of total social cost, fatalities declined from 68% to 62% and injuries declined from 13.5% to 13.1% of the estimated values. In the same period fatalities per collision declined by 33% while injuries declined by 11%. (Please note that this comparison uses the low cost WTP estimates. A more complete discussion of the current model’s use of higher values for human consequences is presented below.) • Property damage and out-of-pocket costs have increased in value between 1990 and 2004. We feel this may reflect the higher relative value of vehicles in the later period. TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research 51
Analysis and Estimation of the Social Cost of Motor Vehicle Collisions in Ontario • Hospital/health care as a proportion of total costs declined from 1.4% to 1.3% between 1990 and 2004. As noted earlier injuries have declined by 11% over this period. As well injuries requiring a hospital stay decline most (down 44% as a proportion of all injuries). As a result there has been a shift in the severity of injuries away from the most costly injuries as may be reflected in our estimate. • Police, fire, and ambulance costs have increased in the current estimate. This may be due to better data related to the use of these services and estimates of the costs per use in the current model. Also costs related to fire departments which show the largest gains from 0.1% to 0.9% between 1990 and 2004 likely reflect a much greater use of fire services in motor vehicle collisions in the second period. • The proportion of costs devoted to tow trucks has increased from 0.2% to 1.0% likely due to changes in the industry identified in the current study. Inclusion of the previously unmeasured cost of traffic delays and court proceedings increases the social costs estimated in 2004. However, the biggest change between the model results for 2004 compared to 1990 is the adoption of higher values for human consequences using the medium scenario willingness to pay estimate. This follows a general trend toward the assignment of higher values to human consequences in the relevant literature (See Trawen et al. (2002), “International Comparison of Costs of a Fatal Casualty of Road Accidents in 1990 and 1999”, Accident Analysis and Prevention, v. 34). We also include a high estimate that overcomes previous deficiencies in the willingness to pay approach that tended to depress the values assigned to human consequences. Although the existence of this bias is widely recognized, the Gunderson and Hyatt study is the first and to our knowledge only study to adjust for it. We include their estimate as our high scenario related to the social value of human consequences. Given the absence of further discussion in the economics literature related to this study, we use the more conservative medium scenario as the base for our estimates. (In reporting of the results of other models we use the medium scenario willingness to pay approach although the analyst has the option to use any of the methods to valuing human consequences.) E. COMPARISON OF 2004 ESTIMATE WITH ESTIMATES AVAILABLE THROUGH SMARTRISK SMARTRISK is a Canadian non-profit organization dedicated to preventing injuries and saving lives. The organization provides information related to everyday risks to allow people to make more informed choices related to the activities they engage in. We estimate the cost of health care (including hospital and medical professional care) related to motor vehicle collisions at $122.9 million in 2004. A comparable estimate of the direct cost (including hospital care, physician services, prescription drugs and home modifications or vocational rehabilitation) of Ontario motor vehicle collisions is 52 TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research
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TP 14800F Analysis and Estimation o
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APPENDIX A: DETAIL ON CALCULATIONS
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• Large truck. Collisions involvi
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ABBREVIATIONS CAC Criteria Air Cont
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APPENDIX D: VALUE OF HUMAN CONSEQUE
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APPENDIX E: REFERENCES Audrey, J. a
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Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada

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