Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada

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Appendix C—The Value of Human Consequences using Discounted Future Earnings E = the Ontario probability of employment given participation, from Labour Force Historical Review, 2005, Statistics Canada 71F0004XCB. Y = the average Ontario earnings if employed, from Statistics Canada (CANSIM). The data on labour force participation and probability of employment were available by sex in five-year groups for five-year age groups from 15-19 to 65-69 and for 70 and over. We further subdivided the last group by five-year increments by prorating the pattern Miller reported in 1993. Similarly, earnings data were available for only certain age groupings (15-19, 20-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65 and over). Again, we prorated the observed statistics over the required five-year age groups using the earnings pattern reported by Miller. • Annual household production was calculated as the product of average employment income per person in Ontario and the ratio of Annual Household Production to Annual Earnings in Miller’s data from 1993, in each five-year age group. The validity of this calculation requires an assumption that this ratio has not changed since then. • Survival probabilities (of being alive a year later given one is alive at a particular year of age), from Life Tables, Canada Provinces and Territories, 1995-1997, Statistics Canada 84-537-XIE. • Fringe benefits were assumed, as was the case in Miller’s work, to equal 34.1% of wages based on data from Employee Benefit Cost in Canada, 1991, KPMG Peat Marwick Stevenson & Kellogg. E. SUMMARY OF DFE LOSSES The exhibit shows losses as discounted future earnings at a real discount rate of 4%, the rate chosen by Miller et al. (Ted Miller, Brooke Whiting, Brenda Kragh, and Charles Zegeer, “Sensitivity of Resource Allocation Models to Discount Rate and Unreported Accidents,” Transportation Research Record 1124, pp. 58-65, 1987). Totals are based on unadjusted data from ORSAR as we do not know the characteristics needed for the DFE calculations of the adjusted injury and fatality data. More significant are the average costs which are used in the social cost model. Other discount rates can be easily applied using the spreadsheet. TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research 171
Analysis and Estimation of the Social Cost of Motor Vehicle Collisions in Ontario EXHIBIT C-1 DFE Values for Ontario Highway Collision Injuries Injury Severity DFE ($) Average/case Fatality $890,739,750 $1,114,818 Permanent Total Disability 98,165,086 1,121,079 Permanent Partial Disability 208,671,411 189,081 Major Injury* 22,933,133 7,709 Minor Injury* 33,566,112 1,136 Minimal Injury* 1,404,048 36 Total: $1,255,479,539 -- * Excluding those resulting in permanent disability. 172 TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research
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TP 14800F Analysis and Estimation o
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APPENDIX A: DETAIL ON CALCULATIONS
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• Large truck. Collisions involvi
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ABBREVIATIONS CAC Criteria Air Cont
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Analysis and Estimation of the Soci
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III ONTARIO MODEL This chapter desc
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Ontario Model redistribution. Simil
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Ontario Model • Pedestrian Injure
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Ontario Model Based on this analysi
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Ontario Model Step 3 Allocate addit
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Ontario Model damaged based on this
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Ontario Model 1. Number of total an
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Ontario Model 2.99; specialist—1.
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Ontario Model 5. Tow trucks Tow tru
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Ontario Model Exhibit III-5 Core WT
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Ontario Model We combine this value
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Ontario Model 6. Ambulance The Onta
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Ontario Model individuals who self-
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Ontario Model threatening injury, p
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Ontario Model d) Additional Polluti
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Ontario Model VARIABLE DATA LOST TI
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Ontario Model We have no data to gu
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V ONTARIO SUB-MODELS AND THEIR SOCI
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Ontario Sub-Models and Their Social
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Appendix A Detail on Calculations o
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Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada

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