Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada

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Ontario Model damaged based on this number of collisions. This is illustrated in the next hypothetical example. In this example the average injury collision involves 1 injury and 3 vehicles. Given 10 injuries allocated to PDOs, the model would identify that 10 collisions needed to be transferred involving all 10 injuries and 30 vehicles. (The hypothetical example does not illustrate that the decision on how many collisions to transfer is based on the number needed to transfer all injuries of each injury severity.) The 10 collisions are transferred to injury collisions increasing the total from 100 to 110. Similarly, PDO collisions are reduced by 10 from 260 to 250. Characteristics of the collisions are also transferred with offsetting increases for injury collisions and decreases for PDO collisions in the number of injuries and vehicles involved. Step 5 Transfer of PDO collisions involving injuries to injury collisions based on characteristics of injury collisions Collision Severity Injury PDO Collisons 100 260 Injuries 100 10 + Vehicles damaged 300 30 500 Injury PDO Collisions 100 10 250 Injuries 100 + 10 Vehicles damaged 300 30 500 Injury PDO Collisions 110 250 Injuries 110 Vehicles damaged 330 500 TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research 23
Analysis and Estimation of the Social Cost of Motor Vehicle Collisions in Ontario Exhibit III-3 (a section from spreadsheet O2 in the model) illustrates the results of these transfers among collision severity categories to adjust for fatalities occurring in injury collisions and injuries occurring in PDOs. The result of these transfers is to increase the number of fatal collisions by 12 (with a corresponding reduction in injury collisions) and to increase the number of injury collisions by 11,878 (with a corresponding reduction in PDO collisions). The total number of collisions is not affected nor is the number of vehicles involved. However there is a redistribution of collisions and motor vehicles damaged by collision severity, as well as an increase in fatalities and injuries to reflect the better data available from the Coroner’s Office (fatalities), MOH&LTC (major and minor injuries) and Chipman re-analysis (minimal injuries). Exhibit III-3 Adjusted Data for Ontario Model—Number of Collisions, Fatalities, Injuries and Damaged Vehicles (2004) Collision Severity Fatal Injury PDO TOTAL Collisions 730 61,814 169,004 231,548 Fatalities 813 813 Injuries: Major 317 4,961 5,279 Minor 1,574 59,152 60,726 Minimal 968 57,855 58,822 Vehicles damaged: Demolished 723 13,150 4,107 17,980 Severe 200 27,605 30,903 58,708 Moderate 157 32,436 105,753 138,345 Light 133 32,158 148,879 181,170 None 48 11,258 19,443 30,748 In 2004 and subsequent years these transfers are conducted automatically based on decision rules influenced by the data. C. OTHER CHARACTERISTICS OF INJURED INDIVIDUALS This section identifies further characteristics of those injured in motor vehicle collisions. 24 TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research
Page 1 and 2: TP 14800F Analysis and Estimation o
Page 3 and 4: APPENDIX A: DETAIL ON CALCULATIONS
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Page 11 and 12: Analysis and Estimation of the Soci
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APPENDIX E: REFERENCES Audrey, J. a
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Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada

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