Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Ontario Model Exhibit III-5 Core WTP Parameters for Human Consequences (2004$) Value by type of effect by scenario: Type of effect Upper bound Lower bound Mean value Death $19.7 million $7.5 million $13.6 million Activity day used for short term disabling injury below: $2,885 $577 $1,730 Per major injury $215,510 $43,102 $129,231 Per minor injury $43,275 $8,655 $25,950 Per minimal injury $2,308 $462 $1,384 Partial disability $1,201,977 $240,395 $721,186 Total disability $2,403,954 $480,790 $1,442,372 Note: Variables above are constructed as described in the text. In Exhibit III-5, the lower bound estimates consist of the updated values estimated by Vodden et al. (1994). These values, estimated using data from Statistics Canada’s 1987 Labour Market Activity Survey, have been updated to 2004. The dependent variable in these regression model estimates is the wage rate so that we have inflated the 1987 value of $4.7 million to $7.8 million using Statistics Canada data on wage rates (The Labour Market cat. No: 71-222-XWE). This adjustment includes an inflation adjustment to retain the real value of the value of statistical life variable and also includes an increasing real wage factor that captures the positive income elasticity of the demand for safety as described in Viscusi and Aldy (2003). The lower bound for the activity day variable and the severe injury variable are calculated in the same way. The upper bound estimates are based on the models estimated by Gunderson and Hyatt (2001). Their central point is that earlier estimates of the value of a statistical life may under-estimate the true value of this variable. The potential bias occurs because other models fail to account for risk preferences that may vary with income and do not control for selection factors based on risk preferences. In the case of the selection issue, this means that workers with less risk aversion will accept (self-select into) higher risk jobs and because they are less risk averse will demand a smaller compensating wage differential for exposure to risk. The smaller compensating wage differential then underestimates the required compensation of “average” members of the population for exposure to risk, thereby under-estimating the costs associated with workplace and other risks including motor vehicle risks. TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research 31
Analysis and Estimation of the Social Cost of Motor Vehicle Collisions in Ontario The value of a statistical life estimated by Gunderson and Hyatt is $12.75 million, expressed in 1988 dollars. Converting this to 2004 dollars using the wage index described above gives the value of $19.7 million shown in Exhibit III-5. The Gunderson and Hyatt models do not compute the activity day and severe injury variables that we plan to use in our modeling. Their overall results indicate that their correction factors would cause the values to increase by a factor of 5. As a result, we use this factor to calculate the upper bounds for these variables in Exhibit III-5. The final column of Exhibit III-5 calculates the mean of the upper and lower bound estimates. 2. Discounted Future Earnings (DFE) Estimates The discounted future earnings approach measures losses in productive activity in the workplace and in household activity for those affected by motor vehicle collisions. Losses through three main types of human consequences are measured: fatalities, permanent disabilities (total and partial), and temporary disabilities and injuries. More detail on the DFE approach may be found in Appendix C. Estimates are summarized in Exhibit III-6. Exhibit III-6 DFE estimates for human consequences (2004 $) Injury Severity Average/case Fatality $1.1 million Permanent Total Disability $1.1 million Permanent Partial Disability $189,081 Major Injury* $7,709 Minor Injury* $1,136 Minimal Injury* $36 * Excluding those resulting in permanent disability. F. VALUATION OF NON-HUMAN CONSEQUENCES 1. Hospital/health care facilities cost Data from MOH&LTC record emergency room visits, and days in hospital for those injured as a result of motor vehicle collisions. A series of studies following a methodology established by the Health Services Restructuring Committee have been conducted of costs in Ontario hospitals. The average across 17 such studies 1 for a patient day is $216.29 and per emergency room visit $84.33 respectively, both in 2000 $. In 2004 dollars these costs are $243 and $95 respectively. These represent costs for use of health care facilities, equipment and supplies and exclude a value for time by health care workers. 1 Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care, Operational Review of Hôpital régional de Sudbury Regional Hospital, November 1, 2002. 32 TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research
Page 1 and 2: TP 14800F Analysis and Estimation o
Page 3 and 4: APPENDIX A: DETAIL ON CALCULATIONS
Page 5 and 6: • Large truck. Collisions involvi
Page 8: ABBREVIATIONS CAC Criteria Air Cont
Page 11 and 12: Analysis and Estimation of the Soci
Page 22 and 23: III ONTARIO MODEL This chapter desc
Page 24 and 25: Ontario Model redistribution. Simil
Page 26 and 27: Ontario Model • Pedestrian Injure
Page 28 and 29: Ontario Model Based on this analysi
Page 30 and 31: Ontario Model Step 3 Allocate addit
Page 32 and 33: Ontario Model damaged based on this
Page 34 and 35: Ontario Model 1. Number of total an
Page 36 and 37: Ontario Model 2.99; specialist—1.
Page 38 and 39: Ontario Model 5. Tow trucks Tow tru
Page 42 and 43: Ontario Model We combine this value
Page 44 and 45: Ontario Model 6. Ambulance The Onta
Page 46 and 47: Ontario Model individuals who self-
Page 48 and 49: Ontario Model threatening injury, p
Page 50 and 51: Ontario Model d) Additional Polluti
Page 52 and 53: Ontario Model VARIABLE DATA LOST TI
Page 54: Ontario Model We have no data to gu
Page 64 and 65: V ONTARIO SUB-MODELS AND THEIR SOCI
Page 66 and 67: Ontario Sub-Models and Their Social
Page 76: Ontario Sub-Models and Their Social
Page 91 and 92:
Analysis and Estimation of the Soci
Page 93 and 94:
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
Page 109 and 110:
Page 111 and 112:
Page 113 and 114:
Page 115 and 116:
Page 117 and 118:
Page 120:
Appendix A Detail on Calculations o
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
Page 145 and 146:
Page 147 and 148:
Page 149 and 150:
Page 151 and 152:
Page 153 and 154:
Page 155 and 156:
Page 157 and 158:
Page 159 and 160:
Page 161 and 162:
Page 163 and 164:
Page 165 and 166:
Page 168 and 169:
APPENDIX B: MAKING CHANGES TO THE M
Page 170 and 171:
Appendix B—Making Changes to the
Page 172 and 173:
Appendix B—Making Changes to the
Page 174:
Appendix C The Value of Human Conse
Page 177 and 178:
Page 179 and 180:
Page 181 and 182:
Page 184 and 185:
APPENDIX D: VALUE OF HUMAN CONSEQUE
Page 186 and 187:
Appendix D—Value of Human Consequ
Page 188 and 189:
Page 190 and 191:
Page 192 and 193:
Page 194 and 195:
Page 196:
Page 200 and 201:
APPENDIX E: REFERENCES Audrey, J. a
show all

Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?