Keith Vodden Dr. Douglas Smith - Transports Canada

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Ontario Model VARIABLE DATA LOST TIME W-wage or value of time $20.60 per hour-average of upper and lower bound estimates. Occupants 1.5 per vehicle (includes all types of vehicles) 1 Vehicles affected (traffic volume) 24-hour traffic distribution data. Volumes were adjusted to reflect varying degrees of road closure from full to partial as described in COMPASS incident reports. ADDITIONAL FUEL USE Additional fuel use 2.25 litres per idling hour plus 5.5 litres per hour for additional driving time. Fuel price $0.766 per litre —Ontario price in 2004. ADDITIONAL EMISSIONS CO 2 emissions [CO 2 +CAC]$ 245 kg per 100 kilometers—double when idling. $70 per CO 2 tonne- average of upper and lower bound estimates. To clarify how these data are used, consider a typical incident. In this example, assume that a segment of Highway 401 is closed for three hours and that this means that each affected vehicle is stopped for two hours followed by one hour of detour/delayed travel. • Time Cost: As noted, the congestion cost model uses a stop time of two hours (or the duration of closure whichever is smaller) and a slow driving/detour time of one hour (or the duration of closure whichever is smaller). Further assume that “normal” traffic volume is 2,000 vehicles per hour. This implies a total of 6,000 affected vehicles, 1.5 persons per vehicle and three hours of delay. Person hours 1 We used an average vehicle occupancy factor of 1.5. Some studies in the GTA suggest the average auto occupancy is between 1.10 and 1.20 depending on location and time of the day, and has a decreasing trend over time. However, to account for some other vehicle categories such as transit buses, school buses, and some commercial vehicle categories we decided to use the factor of 1. 5. The analyst has control over this assumption in the model. TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research 43
Analysis and Estimation of the Social Cost of Motor Vehicle Collisions in Ontario of delay time would be 6,000*1.5*3 or 27,000 hours. Each hour is valued at $20.60 for a cost of $556,200. • Fuel Cost: In this incident, we have two hours of stop time during which we assume that heating/ air conditioning means that the vehicles idle for two hours followed by one hour of additional driving time. This means that each of 6,000 vehicles uses 2.25 litres per idling hour plus 5.5 litres per hour for additional driving time. For two hours stopped and one hour of delayed driving, this is 4.5 idling litres and 5.5 driving for a total of 10 litres times 6,000 vehicles. The total of 60,000 litres is valued at $0.766 per litre (the 2004 price) for a total of $45,960. • Emission Costs: Emissions are calculated from idling time and incremental driving time for the 6,000 vehicles. Idling emissions are 6,000*490*2 hours, where 490 is 245 kg doubled and extra driving emissions are 6,000*245*1 hour. Total emissions are 7,350 tonnes and each tonne is costed at $70. Total emission costs are $514,500. • Total Costs: This is the sum of the three costs above for a total of $1,116,660. This describes how costs are calculated for each COMPASS-reported incident from the Toronto data. e) Cost Estimates due to Traffic Delays The individual cost estimates related to extra time, extra fuel and additional pollution for each incident in the COMPASS sample were extrapolated to All Toronto COMPASS (a proxy for Toronto) and to all of Ontario using the factors described earlier. These costs due to traffic delays are identified in Exhibit III-7. For Ontario, for 2004, traffic delays due to collisions are estimated to be $251 million due to extra time, $21 million due to extra fuel and $230 million due to additional pollution. Exhibit III-7 Estimated Congestion Costs due to Collisions (2004 $ millions) Extra time Extra fuel Additional pollution Total Costs COMPASS Sample All Toronto COMPASS $49.1 $4.1 $45.2 $98.5 $172.9 $14.5 $158.8 $346.1 Ontario $250.7 $21.0 $230.2 $501.9 44 TNS Canadian Facts, Social and Policy Research
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APPENDIX E: REFERENCES Audrey, J. a
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