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DSpace at Khazar University

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standards are established. Competition, in the transition to m<strong>at</strong>urity, will become more<br />

intense as rapid growth can now only be achieved by capturing customers from rival<br />

firms. Cumul<strong>at</strong>ive experience no longer provides an important advantage to one firm<br />

because all firms have now gained all the advantages th<strong>at</strong> are available. A significant<br />

fe<strong>at</strong>ure of m<strong>at</strong>uring industries is the tendency for competition to be based on price, since<br />

firms' product offerings tend to become very similar and <strong>at</strong>tempts <strong>at</strong> innov<strong>at</strong>ion are soon<br />

copied.<br />

In declining industries, only the most efficient firms can earn reasonable profits,<br />

and the marginal players are "shaken out" of the industry. Where there are high exit<br />

barriers, rivalry can become very intense as marginal firms hang on in the industry,<br />

leading to chronic overcapacity.<br />

Interrel<strong>at</strong>ionships between the five forces<br />

We need to understand how a change in one of the five forces can impact upon<br />

another. Let us suppose th<strong>at</strong>, due to a technological breakthrough, entry into the<br />

industry became much easier. If the industry is earning above average profits, new firms<br />

are likely to enter. This in turn could make rivalry more intense, and may well feed<br />

through to the buyers, who are now better able to play one firm off against another.<br />

So all these forces are interconnected, and changes in one are likely Impact on the<br />

others.<br />

How can we forecast these structure changes?<br />

Forecasting is notoriously difficult, but th<strong>at</strong> is no reason not to try to about the<br />

future. One way in to the problem is to look <strong>at</strong> trends the environment th<strong>at</strong> looks as if<br />

they might continue into the future. Wider environment in which the firm and its<br />

industry are loc<strong>at</strong>ed can subdivide for forecasting purposes into the following four<br />

sectors:<br />

- The Political environment.<br />

- The Economic environment.<br />

- The Social environment<br />

- The Technological environment.<br />

T analysis can be useful if it encourages us to think more broadly <strong>at</strong> environmental<br />

57

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