Full Report - Subregional Office for East and North-East Asia - escap

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 2013
half of 2012, but growth slowed during the second
half of the year as Europe struggled to solve its
sovereign debt crisis and the economic recovery
in the United States still remained anaemic. GDP
growth in the subregion as a whole improved to
4.1% in 2012 compared with 3.5% in 2011 (see
table 2.1). However, this improvement in growth was
due to economic recovery in Japan after the 2011
earthquake and tsunami. Excluding Japan, average
GDP growth in the subregion decelerated to 6.4%
in 2012 from 8% in 2011, reflecting the slowdown
of all the economies in the subregion.
Most of these economies are highly export-oriented.
The share of the agricultural sector in GDP has
gone down with the increase in the shares of the
industrial and services sectors in the economy over
the years. In 2011, the agricultural sector accounted
for about 10% of GDP in China and about 15% in
Mongolia. The share of the agricultural sector was
much lower in other economies. The share of the
industrial sector in GDP was more than 40% in
China and somewhat lower in Mongolia and the
Republic of Korea. The services sector gained in
all the economies and dominated in some, including
in Hong Kong, China; and Macao, China.
The economy of China grew by 9.2% in 2011 but
growth fell to 7.8% in 2012, with the rate of GDP
growth slowing for 7 straight quarters and missing
the Government’s target in the period July-September
2012, for the first time since the depths of the global
financial crisis. At the end of the year, the activity
indicators of China were generally stronger than
expected, providing further evidence of an economic
rebound in the last quarter. On the demand side,
growth was supported by domestic consumption and
capital formation, partly reflecting the positive effects
of policy easing (cuts in interest rate and reserve
requirements) that had been put into place early in
the year. Investment in real estate development grew
in 2012 but at a rate lower than in the previous
year. While residential property prices continue to
rise, other housing market data point to signs that
China’s real estate market is stabilizing, even as
tightening measures remain in place. As the year
progressed, inventories for major natural resources,
such as coal and copper, built up at record levels.
In the second half of the year, net exports offset
some weakening in overall investment.
The economy of Hong Kong, China experienced
tepid growth, with real GDP growth for the full year
abating to 1.4% in 2012, compared with 5% growth
in 2011. Merchandise exports remained sluggish
amid severe external headwinds, while the domestic
sector kept some momentum, propped up by private
consumption expenditures, due to a tight labour
Table 2.1. Rates of economic growth and inflation in selected East and North-East Asian economies, 2011-2013
(Percentage)
Real GDP growth
Inflation a
2011 2012 b 2013 c 2011 2012 b 2013 c
East and North-East Asia d 3.5 4.1 4.5 2.3 1.3 2.0
East and North-East Asia (excluding Japan) d 8.0 6.4 6.8 5.1 2.7 3.8
China 9.2 7.8 8.0 5.4 2.7 4.0
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea .. .. ..
Hong Kong, China 5.0 1.4 3.5 5.3 4.1 4.5
Japan -0.6 2.0 2.5 -0.3 0.0 0.4
Macao, China 20.0 9.0 13.5 5.8 6.1 5.7
Mongolia 17.3 12.3 15.5 9.2 14.3 12.4
Republic of Korea 3.6 2.0 2.3 4.0 2.2 2.5
Sources: ESCAP, based on national sources; and CEIC Data Company Limited. Available from http://ceicdata.com (accessed on 30 March 2013).
a Changes in the consumer price index.
b Estimates.
c Forecasts (as of 30 March 2013).
d GDP figures at market prices in United States dollars in 2011 (at 2000 prices) are used as weights to calculate the subregional growth rates.
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