Full Report - Subregional Office for East and North-East Asia - escap

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ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 2013 In the Asia-Pacific region, two main energy challenges are related to providing universal access to sustainable energy supplies: (a) to meet existing shortfalls; and (b) to meet projected growth in energy demand, especially from major emerging economies in the region. Fortunately, the region has both conventional (e.g. coal, oil, gas) and renewable (e.g. hydro, solar, wind, geothermal) energy resources, which can be tapped to achieve the Sustainable Energy for All initiative. However, there are significant disparities in the Asia-Pacific region in terms of access to energy services, especially in terms of access to electricity, and access to modern cooking fuels (see figure 3.8). In the region, 1.7 billion people rely on traditional biomass and more than 600 million people live without electricity. In addition, more than 70% of the people in the Pacific subregion still do not have access to electricity. 43 A total of 10 countries – four in developing Asia and six in sub-Saharan Africa – account for two thirds of those people globally without electricity; just 3 countries – Bangladesh, China and India – account for more than half of those without clean cooking facilities (IEA, 2012). However, the situation varies at the subregional level. Of the more than 600 million people without electricity in Asia and the Pacific, the South and South- West Asian subregion alone accounts for about 449 million; these people are living in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan (IEA, 2011). In the South-East Asian subregion, there are about 81 million people in Indonesia and about 44 million in Myanmar who continue to live without access to electricity (IEA, 2011). In the Pacific subregion, only 10% of the households in Papua New Guinea have access to electricity (UNDP, 2009a). In the East and North-East Asian subregion, three countries, namely China, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and Mongolia, experience relatively low levels of electrification: 17.7 million people in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, 8 million people in China and about a million people in Mongolia live without access to electricity (IEA, 2011). Papua New Guinea Myanmar Solomon Islands Afghanistan Vanuatu Timor-Leste Cambodia Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Bangladesh Nepal Lao People’s Democratic Republic Pakistan Indonesia Mongolia Bhutan India Sri Lanka Fiji Philippines Samoa Viet Nam Iran (Islamic Republic of) Thailand Malaysia China Brunei Darussalam Maldives Republic of Korea On the other hand, although access to energy services is not the primary energy-related challenge in North and Central Asia, there are concerns in some countries. For instance, 98% of the population of Kyrgyzstan has access to the electrical grid, but there are forced blackouts and rationing when 0 20 40 60 80 100 Without access to electricity (% population) Figure 3.8. Percentage of population without access to electricity and modern cooking fuels, latest available data Papua New Guinea Myanmar Solomon Islands Afghanistan Vanuatu Timor-Leste Cambodia Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Bangladesh Nepal Lao People’s Democratic Republic Pakistan Indonesia Mongolia Bhutan India Sri Lanka Fiji Philippines Samoa Viet Nam Iran (Islamic Republic of) Thailand Malaysia China Brunei Darussalam Maldives Republic of Korea 0 20 40 60 80 100 Without access to electricity (% population) Lao People’s Democratic Republic Myanmar Solomon Islands Cambodia Bangladesh Afghanistan Papua New Guinea Vanuatu Nepal Samoa Sri Lanka Mongolia India Pakistan Viet Nam China Indonesia Philippines Fiji Bhutan Thailand Maldives Timor-Leste Malaysia Republic of Korea 0 20 40 60 80 100 Without access to modern cooking fuels (% population) Sources: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2011 (Paris, 2011); UNDP, The Energy Access Situation in Developing Countries (New Lao York, People’s 2009); Democratic and Republic national sources. Myanmar Solomon Islands Cambodia Bangladesh 168 Afghanistan Papua New Guinea Vanuatu
DEVELOPMENTAL MACROECONOMICS: THE CRITICAL ROLE OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURE CHAPTER 3 hydropower gets low during the winter (Abdyrasulova and Kravsov, 2009). Likewise in winters, more than 1 million people in Tajikistan, the total population of which is less than 7 million people, have little or no access to an adequate energy supplies (UNDP and UNEP, 2011). Universal access to energy services is essential for increasing economic activities, which create opportunities for employment, not only for the poor. Similarly, the lack of access to modern cooking fuels poses a severe health hazard due to indoor air pollution caused by the burning of inefficient cooking fuels, such as traditional biomass. WHO (2006a) estimated that cooking with traditional fuels is a major risk factor for pneumonia among children and chronic respiratory disease among women in particular; the use of such fuels is responsible for 1.5 million deaths every year. Clearly, increasing access to modern, clean and efficient sources of energy is a key driver of inclusive and sustainable development. The relationship between two key indicators of the universal access to modern energy services, namely the proportion of population without access to electricity and the proportion of population relying on traditional biomass for cooking, are closely related to development and poverty outcomes. Figure 3.9 illustrates a significant correlation between access to modern energy services and human development and poverty. There is a significant correlation between access to modern energy services and human development Energy access indicators are positively correlated with human development (as measured by the Human Development Index). 44 The scatter diagrams in the figure indicate that countries with better access to energy services tend to exhibit a higher level of human development. Better access to modern energy services provides households with opportunities to engage in productive activities and subsequently creates conditions for better jobs higher-level incomes. Evidence from the Asia-Pacific region indicates that access to energy services contributes to greater human welfare and increasingly higher levels of sustainable development. Figure 3.9. Development and universal access to energy services, latest available data 1 1 0.9 KOR 0.9 KOR Human Development Index 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 VUT SLB KHM MMR TLS PNG BGD NPL BRN MYS IRN LKA FJI WSMCHN THA MNG PHL MDV IDN VNM IND LAO BTN PAK Human Development Index 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 LKA CHN FJI WSM THA MNG PHL VUT IDN VNM KHM IND LAO SLB BTN BGD PAK MMR PNG NPL MDV MYS TLS 0.4 AFG 0.4 AFG 0.3 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Access to electricty, percentage of population 0.3 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Access to modern cooking fuels, percentage of population Sources: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2011 (Paris, 2011); UNDP, Human Development Report (New York, Palgrave Macmillan, 2011); ESCAP/ADB/UNDP, Accelerating Equitable Achievement of the MDGs: Closing Gaps in Health and Nutrition Outcomes (Regional MDG Report 2011/12) (Bangkok, 2011); and national sources. Notes: The fitted line is based on an ordinary least squares regression. The size of bubbles represents purchasing power parity-adjusted per capita GDP at constant 2005 international dollars 169
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UNDER EMBARGO UNTIL 03.30 GMT, THUR
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ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA
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PREFACE The Economic and Social Sur
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FORWARD-LOOKING M
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on education and health. Indebted c
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was pr
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CONTENTS Page Foreword ............
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CONTENTS (continued) Page Australia
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BOXES Page A. Forward-looking macro
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FIGURES (continued) Page 1.20. Ineq
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TABLES Page 1.1. Main destination e
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References to dollars ($) are to Un
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ABBREVIATIONS ADB AEC APEC ASEAN AS
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SOURCES OF QUOTATIONS (a) Page 1: a
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WHY FORWARD-LOOKING MACROECONOMIC P
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▲ WHY FORWARD-LOOKING MACROECONOM
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THE STATE OF INCLUSIVE AND SUSTAINA
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REFERENCES United Nations, Economic
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STATISTICAL ANNEX STATISTICAL ANNEX
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STATISTICAL ANNEX Table 2. Poverty
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STATISTICAL ANNEX Table 4. Resource
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STATISTICAL ANNEX Technical notes T
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STATISTICAL ANNEX Source: Barro, Ro
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STATISTICAL ANNEX estimates based o
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This publication may be obtained fr
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READERSHIP SURVEY The Macroeconomic
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Half a decade since the onset of th
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