Full Report - Subregional Office for East and North-East Asia - escap

INVESTING IN INCLUSIVE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT CHAPTER 4
ANNEX - METHODOLOGY
IL
Employment for all
i = (AG i + t
t NA t i ) * Lab t i
.
Pop t
i
The required expenditure to provide an employment
guarantee (JG t i Data on the proportion of the labour force working
where superscripts refer to countries, in agriculture and working informally in non-agriculture
subscripts to time) is estimated using the following are obtained from ILO statistics. Data pertaining to
equation:
population are from the 2010 Revision of the World
JG t i = W i t* IL i Population Prospects provided by the Population
* t T,
Division of the United Nations Department of
where W i Economic and Social Affairs. GDP per capita
tis the expenditure required by country
i to employ a worker in year t. IL i data are from the World Bank World Development
t represents Indicators database and data on national poverty
the size of the informal sector in country i at lines are drawn from national sources.
time t and T represents the length that the job
guarantee is implemented each year. According to As the expenditure of employing a worker is
the example, a job guarantee is provided to each expressed in GDP per capita terms and the informal
person informally employed for 100 days per year, sector is expressed relative to the total population,
hence T = 100/365.
the overall expenditure is expressed relative to GDP
for each country.
As outlined above, the required expenditure of
employing a worker is equivalent to the wage Income security for the elderly
supplied by the job guarantee programme, including
administration costs (X i):
t
The expenditure required for a universal noncontributory
pension (NP i t ) to all aged 65 and
W t i = X i + t W i . 2012 older is calculated as follows:
In each country the wage cost is equivalent to the
national poverty line in 2012 (NPL i
NP i
2012 )
t = (X i t + B i t ) * Pen i t, .
relative to GDP per capita in local currency units in
2012 (GDPPC 2012 i where Pen i t denotes the proportion of persons
). This ratio being kept constant aged 65 and older in each country across time
in the forecast period 2013-2030. Moreover, in the
above example, administration costs, (X i and B i t denotes the pension benefit. According to
t ), are the assumptions, B i t is equivalent to the national
assumed to be equivalent to 50% of the wage poverty line in 2012 relative to GDP per capita in
cost. Therefore,
local currency units in 2012. Thus,
W i = t 1.5 NPL i 2012 .
*
GDPPC i 2012
B i = NPL i 2012 .
t
GDPPC i 2012
The informal sector comprises all persons working in
agriculture and all informal workers working in nonagriculture.
Using AG i t to represent the proportion
Administration costs are equivalent to 5% of total
of the labour force working in agriculture, NA i expenditure of the programme. As above, the pension
t the benefit is expressed in GDP per capita terms and
proportion of the labour force working informally in
non-agriculture, Lab i the number of beneficiaries is expressed relative to
t the working age population
aged 15-64 and Pop t i
the total population. Therefore, the overall expenditure
the total population results in: is expressed relative to GDP for each country.
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