Full Report - Subregional Office for East and North-East Asia - escap

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 2013
Figure 2.6. Current account balance in North and Central Asian economies, 2010-2012
Percentage of GDP
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Sources: ESCAP, based on national sources; and International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics online database. Available from http://
elibrary-data.imf.org/ (accessed on 30 March 2013); and Economist Intelligence Unit, Country Reports.
Note: Data for 2012 are estimates.
Kyrgyzstan
Russian
Federation
Tajikistan
2010 2011 2012
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
prices helped to offset to some extent its widening
deficit on the services account. FDI remained
robust and largely directed towards the oil and gas
sector. In Kazakhstan, the current account surplus
narrowed to 4.7% of GDP in 2012 from 7.6%
in 2011. The country’s persistent services deficit
remained substantial, particularly that related to the
hydrocarbon sector. In the Russian Federation, the
current account remained in surplus at 4% of GDP
in 2012. High oil prices were the main reason
for the current account surplus as two thirds of
export revenue came from oil and gas. Exports of
other raw materials and basic manufactures, such
as timber, metals and chemicals, accounted for
much of the remainder. In Uzbekistan, the current
account surplus narrowed to about 4.7% of GDP
in 2012, from 5.8% in 2011, as global prices for
their commodity exports, such as gold and cotton,
declined. Although a fall in global food prices in
early 2012 reduced import costs, demand rose
for consumer goods and imported inputs for the
country’s infrastructure development and housing
construction programme.
Among net energy exporters, Turkmenistan is
the only country in the subregion with its current
account falling into deficit in 2012. Gas exports,
especially to China, drove export growth and helped
in maintaining a large merchandise trade surplus,
while continuing rapid growth in imported services
generated a sizeable services deficit.
In contrast to the healthy external account of the
net energy exporters, the net energy importers
continued to post large current account deficits
in 2012. In Armenia, the current account deficit
remained sizeable at 10.4% of GDP in 2012, as
the worsening external economic conditions showed
no sign of improvement in the trade account or a
pickup in remittance inflows from Armenians working
abroad. The current account deficit of Georgia also
widened in 2012 to 12.7% of GDP from 11.8% of
2011. Export growth slowed sharply as economic
conditions in key trading partners deteriorated.
Georgia’s ability to attract FDI inflows was also weak
in 2012 for the same reason. Although imports of
Kyrgyzstan were tempered by falling food prices
during the first half of the year, high prices for
energy imports and increased demand for consumer
goods worked in the opposite direction. International
prices for gold have remained high, but a drastic
curtailment of output from the domestic gold sector
reduced export earnings. This divergence between
export contraction and import growth intensified the
external imbalance, which resulted in the current
account deficit widening to 9% of GDP in 2012
from 6.3% of GDP in 2011. Similarly in Tajikistan,
a drop in the global prices of aluminium and cotton
88