Full Report - Subregional Office for East and North-East Asia - escap

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 2013
no indication that this recovery will be sustainable
as the two major export markets of China (the
United States and the European Union) are still
facing subdued prospects. 12
The import data reflect the chain reactions indicated
on the export side. Imports from China that are for
processing and assembling have been declining since
early 2011 (see figure 1.15). Imports of equipment
used for processing and assembling activities are
fluctuating, and growth has mainly been negative.
Ordinary imports, such as imports for domestic use,
grew rapidly during 2010 and 2011 because of the
Chinese economic boom and expansionary policies.
However, a contraction of ordinary imports continued
throughout 2012, from about 30% during 2011 to
negative growth in the second half of 2012, indicating
a significant slowdown in the domestic economy.
One option for sustaining the export performance
of China would be to encourage product and
market diversification. However, in the face of an
economic slowdown in traditional destinations, other
countries are also seeking increased market shares
in non-traditional import markets mostly in emerging
economies. Amid global uncertainties, competition
in emerging markets will be fierce. Therefore,
policymakers need to identify policy mixes that would
enable exporters to achieve greater efficiency and
trade at lower costs. Cost-cutting through lower
wages would be counterproductive as it would
likely dampen domestic demand. Therefore, the best
route for enhancing competitiveness is by improving
productivity. In addition, broadening and strengthening
regional economic integration is necessary as this
will improve access to Asia-Pacific markets.
The evolving nature of demand in China is a critical
factor for the direction of the region’s economic
relationships. There is some uncertainty tied to
this issue. Policymakers in China have stated
that their long-term aim is to improve the “quality
of growth” by reducing the excessive dependence
of the economy on exports and increasing the
role of domestic demand; and within domestic
demand, reducing the role of investment, both in
infrastructure and recently in the housing sector,
and instead boosting the disproportionately small
role of consumption. The Government unveiled
wide-reaching plans in February 2013 to empower
Figure 1.15. Monthly import growth of China by custom type, a 2010-2012
150
120
90
60
30
0
-30
-60
-90
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Imports: Ordinary Trade
Imports: Processing and Assembling
Imports: Equipment Imported for Processing and Assembling
Source: ESCAP, based on data from the General Administration of Customs of China, accessed from CEIC Data Company Limited. Available from
http://ceicdata.com (accessed in February 2013).
a Custom types are defined by the General Administration of Customs of China.
36