Full Report - Subregional Office for East and North-East Asia - escap

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CONTENTS (continued) Page Increased disasters costing lives and development ................................................. 61 Policy options ................................................................................................................. 62 Supporting growth and achieving inclusive and sustainable development ........... 62 Debt, inflation and fiscal sustainability ....................................................................... 64 Regional cooperation for addressing infrastructure deficits .................................... 65 Chapter 2. Macroeconomic performance and policy challenges at the subregional level ........................................................................................................................................ 69 Diversity in performance across subregions ............................................................. 70 East and North-East Asia ............................................................................................. 71 Growth slows as the global economy weakens again .............................................. 71 Inflation slows but volatile food and fuel prices continue to affect households ..... 73 Monetary policy stance supportive of growth ............................................................ 74 Adequate fiscal space in most economies provides the flexibility to consider stimulus ..................................................................................................... 75 Current account remains in surplus ............................................................................ 76 Net exports remain supportive but intraregional trade growth weakens ................ 77 Currencies of countries in the subregion appreciate slightly against the dollar .... 77 Foreign direct investment contracts amid weakening global investment sentiment ............................................................................................... 78 Future outlook and policy challenges ......................................................................... 78 North and Central Asia .................................................................................................. 82 Growth slows across the subregion ........................................................................... 82 Inflation eases during the first half of 2012 but subsequently picks up .................. 84 Deterioration in fiscal balances ................................................................................... 85 Central banks face a policy dilemma between supporting growth and taming inflation ......................................................................................................... 87 Moderate export growth deteriorates current account balances ............................ 87 Future outlook and policy challenges ......................................................................... 89 Pacific ................................................................................................................................ 93 Pacific island developing economies: Growth slows ................................................................................................................. 93 Inflationary pressures subside .................................................................................... 95 Diverse budget performance ....................................................................................... 96 Current account deficits remain large ........................................................................ 98 Future outlook and policy challenges ......................................................................... 99 xiv
CONTENTS (continued) Page Australia and New Zealand: Growth performance improved steadily ..................................................................... 103 Moderate inflationary pressures ................................................................................. 104 Subdued global economic growth and strong currencies weigh down exports ................................................................................................. 105 Fiscal policy remains supportive of economic growth .............................................. 105 Monetary policy eased ................................................................................................. 105 Economic outlook is favourable but risks are tilted to the downside ...................... 105 South and South-West Asia ......................................................................................... 106 Growth slows due to both external and domestic factors ........................................ 106 High inflation persists ................................................................................................... 109 Monetary policy needs to strike a balance between curbing inflationary expectations and reviving growth ........................................................................... 111 Budget deficits continue to remain high ..................................................................... 111 Widening current account deficits ................................................................................. 113 Future outlook and policy challenges ......................................................................... 115 South-East Asia .............................................................................................................. 119 Growth accelerates, led by robust domestic demand and Thailand’s rebound .................................................................................................. 119 Inflation softens as pressure from food and fuel prices subsides ........................... 122 Active fiscal policy helps boost domestic demand ................................................... 124 Monetary policy supports growth while curbing short-term inflows ........................ 125 Current account surpluses narrow but FDI and remittances remain strong; portfolio flows volatile ..................................................................... 126 Future outlook and policy challenges ......................................................................... 128 Chapter 3. Developmental macroeconomics: the critical role of public expenditure ............ 137 Shifts in the macroeconomic policy paradigm ....................................................... 138 Need to bring back the balance: stabilization is necessary but not sufficient ....... 142 Fiscal policy: composition of government expenditure does matter ....................... 144 Monetary policy: moderate inflation can help economic growth ............................. 147 Financial policy: prudential regulation and financial inclusion ................................. 149 Exchange rates: an instrument for structural change ............................................... 153 Capital flows: managing enhances policy space and mitigates financial sector fragility ............................................................................................................ 155 xv
Page 1 and 2: UNDER EMBARGO UNTIL 03.30 GMT, THUR
Page 4 and 5: ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA
Page 7 and 8: PREFACE The Economic and Social Sur
Page 9 and 10: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FORWARD-LOOKING M
Page 11 and 12: on education and health. Indebted c
Page 13 and 14: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was pr
Page 15: CONTENTS Page Foreword ............
Page 19 and 20: BOXES Page A. Forward-looking macro
Page 21 and 22: FIGURES (continued) Page 1.20. Ineq
Page 23 and 24: TABLES Page 1.1. Main destination e
Page 25 and 26: References to dollars ($) are to Un
Page 27 and 28: ABBREVIATIONS ADB AEC APEC ASEAN AS
Page 29 and 30: SOURCES OF QUOTATIONS (a) Page 1: a
Page 31 and 32: WHY FORWARD-LOOKING MACROECONOMIC P
Page 35 and 36: ▲ WHY FORWARD-LOOKING MACROECONOM
Page 43 and 44: THE STATE OF INCLUSIVE AND SUSTAINA
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THE STATE OF INCLUSIVE AND SUSTAINA
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MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND POLIC
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DEVELOPMENTAL MACROECONOMICS: THE C
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Turkey Hong Kong, China Tajikistan
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INVESTING IN INCLUSIVE AND SUSTAINA
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Percentage of GDP INVESTING IN INCL
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❚ ❚ ✕❚ INVESTING IN INCLUSI
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207 REFERENCES
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REFERENCES REFERENCES Abdyrasulova
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REFERENCES (2012a). The debate on e
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REFERENCES (2012). World Energy Out
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REFERENCES Ma, K-H (2008). Assessme
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REFERENCES (2011b). Child Poverty i
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REFERENCES United Nations, Economic
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STATISTICAL ANNEX STATISTICAL ANNEX
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STATISTICAL ANNEX Table 2. Poverty
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STATISTICAL ANNEX Table 4. Resource
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STATISTICAL ANNEX Technical notes T
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STATISTICAL ANNEX Source: Barro, Ro
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STATISTICAL ANNEX estimates based o
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This publication may be obtained fr
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READERSHIP SURVEY The Macroeconomic
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Half a decade since the onset of th
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Full Report - Subregional Office for East and North-East Asia - escap

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