Full Report - Subregional Office for East and North-East Asia - escap

More documents

Recommendations

Info

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 2013 Table 1.2. Selected economies of the ESCAP region: rates of economic growth and inflation, 2009-2013 (Percentage) Real GDP growth Inflation a 2009 2010 2011 2012 b 2013 c 2009 2010 2011 2012 b 2013 c East and North-East Asia d, e 0.0 6.6 3.5 4.1 4.5 -0.7 1.2 2.3 1.3 2.0 East and North-East Asia (excluding Japan) d, e 6.8 9.5 8.0 6.4 6.8 0.0 3.2 5.1 2.7 3.8 China 9.1 10.4 9.2 7.8 8.0 -0.7 3.3 5.4 2.7 4.0 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea -0.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Hong Kong, China -2.8 7.0 5.0 1.4 3.5 0.5 2.4 5.3 4.1 4.5 Japan -6.3 3.9 -0.6 2.0 2.5 -1.4 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.4 Macao, China 1.3 26.4 20.0 9.0 13.5 1.2 2.8 5.8 6.1 5.7 Mongolia -1.3 6.4 17.3 12.3 15.5 6.3 10.1 9.2 14.3 12.4 Republic of Korea 0.2 6.1 3.6 2.0 2.3 2.8 2.9 4.0 2.2 2.5 North and Central Asia d -5.3 4.6 4.8 3.9 4.0 10.8 7.1 8.7 5.4 6.4 Armenia -14.2 2.6 4.7 7.2 5.5 3.4 8.2 7.8 2.6 3.5 Azerbaijan 9.3 5.0 0.1 2.2 1.5 1.5 5.7 8.1 1.8 2.1 Georgia -3.8 6.4 7.0 7.0 6.0 1.7 7.1 8.5 -0.9 4.0 Kazakhstan 1.2 7.0 7.5 5.0 6.0 7.3 7.1 8.3 5.1 6.5 Kyrgyzstan 2.9 -1.4 5.7 -0.9 7.0 6.8 8.0 16.9 2.8 6.4 Russian Federation -7.8 4.0 4.3 3.4 3.6 11.7 6.9 8.4 5.1 6.4 Tajikistan 3.4 6.5 7.4 7.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 12.5 5.8 9.1 Turkmenistan 6.1 9.2 14.7 11.1 8.0 10.0 12.0 12.0 8.5 10.0 Uzbekistan 8.1 8.5 8.3 8.1 7.0 14.1 9.4 12.8 13.2 10.0 Pacific d, e 1.2 2.5 2.5 3.5 2.5 1.9 2.8 3.4 1.8 2.5 Pacific island developing economies d 2.7 4.8 7.9 6.4 3.4 7.0 4.8 7.5 3.9 5.9 Cook Islands -3.6 0.2 3.4 3.3 3.0 10.2 1.8 0.6 2.8 3.0 Fiji -1.3 -0.2 1.9 2.5 2.7 6.8 5.4 7.7 3.5 3.0 Kiribati -0.6 1.8 3.0 3.0 3.5 8.8 -2.8 7.7 -1.8 3.0 Marshall Islands -1.3 5.2 5.0 1.9 2.3 0.5 1.6 9.5 5.7 4.5 Micronesia (Federated States of) 0.7 3.1 1.4 1.4 1.0 8.2 4.3 7.9 5.6 4.5 Nauru 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.9 8.0 21.2 -0.6 -3.5 -0.5 0.5 Palau -4.6 0.3 5.8 4.0 3.0 4.6 1.2 2.1 6.0 5.5 Papua New Guinea 5.5 7.1 11.1 9.2 4.0 7.0 6.0 8.5 4.1 8.0 Samoa -5.4 0.2 2.1 1.2 0.9 14.6 -0.2 2.9 2.1 1.4 Solomon Islands -1.0 7.1 10.6 5.5 4.0 7.1 1.0 7.4 5.9 4.5 Tonga 3.2 3.3 2.9 0.8 0.5 1.4 3.6 6.2 1.2 2.7 Tuvalu -1.7 -0.5 1.0 1.2 1.3 -0.1 -1.9 0.5 1.4 2.0 Vanuatu 3.5 2.2 4.3 2.0 3.2 4.3 2.8 0.8 1.4 2.5 Developed countries (Australia and New Zealand) d 1.2 2.4 2.4 3.5 2.5 1.8 2.7 3.4 1.7 2.4 Australia 1.3 2.6 2.5 3.6 2.5 1.8 2.8 3.3 1.8 2.5 New Zealand 0.1 0.9 1.5 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.3 4.0 1.1 1.5 South and South-West Asia d, f 4.0 7.7 6.4 4.1 5.1 11.0 10.0 9.4 11.1 8.5 Afghanistan 22.5 8.4 5.7 6.9 6.5 -8.3 7.7 11.8 9.0 6.0 Bangladesh 5.7 6.1 6.7 6.3 6.0 6.7 7.3 8.8 10.6 7.5 Bhutan 6.7 11.8 11.7 8.5 8.4 3.0 6.1 8.3 13.5 7.8 India 8.0 8.4 6.2 5.0 6.4 12.4 10.4 8.4 10.0 7.0 Iran (Islamic Republic of) 1.5 3.2 4.0 -0.9 0.8 10.8 12.4 21.5 25.2 21.8 Maldives -3.6 7.1 7.0 3.4 4.3 4.0 4.7 11.3 10.9 8.3 Nepal 3.8 4.0 3.8 4.5 4.0 12.6 9.6 9.6 8.3 7.5 Pakistan 1.7 3.8 3.0 3.7 3.5 20.8 11.7 13.7 11.0 8.5 Sri Lanka 3.5 8.0 8.0 6.2 6.5 3.5 5.9 6.7 7.6 7.3 Turkey -4.7 9.0 8.6 3.2 3.8 6.3 8.6 6.5 8.9 7.6 South-East Asia d 1.0 8.3 4.5 5.3 5.4 2.3 3.9 5.5 3.8 4.1 Brunei Darussalam -1.8 2.6 2.2 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.4 2.0 0.5 1.4 Cambodia -2.0 6.0 7.1 7.3 7.0 -0.7 4.0 5.5 3.0 3.8 Indonesia 4.5 6.1 6.5 6.2 6.6 4.8 5.1 5.4 4.3 5.0 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.3 8.1 0.0 6.0 7.6 4.3 6.8 Malaysia -1.7 7.2 5.1 5.6 5.0 0.6 1.7 3.2 1.7 2.5 Myanmar 4.9 5.3 5.5 6.3 6.3 8.2 7.7 4.2 1.5 6.5 Philippines 1.1 7.6 3.7 6.6 6.2 3.2 3.8 4.8 3.1 4.1 Singapore -0.8 14.8 5.2 1.3 3.0 0.6 2.8 5.2 4.6 3.5 Thailand -2.2 7.8 0.1 6.4 5.3 -0.8 3.3 3.8 3.0 3.1 Timor-Leste 12.8 9.5 10.6 10.0 10.0 0.7 6.9 13.5 12.0 8.0 Viet Nam 5.3 6.8 5.9 5.0 5.5 7.1 8.9 18.7 9.3 8.0 Memorandum items: Developing ESCAP economies 4.6 8.6 7.0 5.6 6.0 3.6 5.1 6.4 5.0 5.1 Least developed countries 5.0 6.0 6.6 6.3 6.0 6.4 7.1 8.4 9.3 7.1 Landlocked developing countries 4.4 6.7 6.7 5.8 5.7 8.0 7.9 9.8 6.9 6.9 Small island developing States 2.4 5.3 7.9 6.2 3.8 6.3 4.9 8.2 5.0 6.3 Developed ESCAP economies -5.5 3.7 -0.3 2.2 2.5 -1.0 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 Total ESCAP 0.4 6.6 4.0 4.2 4.6 1.7 2.9 3.8 3.0 3.2 Sources: ESCAP, based on national sources; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2013). World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013, Sales No. E.13.II.C.2. Available from www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_current/wesp2013.pdf; IMF, International Financial Statistics databases. Available from http://elibrary-data.imf.org/; ADB, Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2012 (Manila, 2012); CEIC Data Company Limited. Available from www.ceicdata.com; and web site of the Interstate Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States, www.cisstat.com, March 2013. a Changes in the consumer price index. b Estimates. c Forecasts (as of 30 March 2013) d Calculations are based on GDP figures at market prices in United States dollars in 2011 (at 2000 prices) used as weights to calculate the regional and subregional growth rates. e Estimates for 2012 and forecasts for 2013 are available for selected economies. f The estimates and forecasts for countries relate to fiscal years defined as follows: 2011 refers to fiscal year spanning 1 April 2011 to 31 March 2012 in India; 21 March 2011 to 20 March 2012 in Afghanistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran; 1 July 2010 to 30 June 2011 in Bangladesh, Bhutan and Pakistan; and 16 July 2010 to 15 July 2011 in Nepal. 44
THE STATE OF INCLUSIVE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN UNCERTAIN TIMES CHAPTER 1 Box 1.4. “New normal” of lower growth being witnessed in Asia-Pacific Since the global financial turmoil began in 2008, the concept of a “new normal” of lower growth in developed economies has been put forward. The argument is that the reshaping of economies in the developed world will be a medium-term process. Governments are engaging in fiscal consolidation that reduces economic growth, while households and the business and financial sector are also spending less as they rebuild their balance sheets. As growth outcomes in the developed economies and the Asia-Pacific region remain closely linked, a “new normal” growth in the developed economies would also raise the possibility of an extended period of slower growth in the region. Five years since the start of the crisis, this box examines and finds that it is indeed the case that a “new normal” of lower growth is being witnessed in parts of Asia and the Pacific. Overall, the Asia-Pacific region appears to be experiencing a “new normal” of moderately lower growth. Under assumptions of the continuation of present economic trends, a projected and pre-crisis growth rates would differ by about one percentage point per year. In particular, growth in developing Asia-Pacific economies is estimated to decelerate from 7.3% per year during the pre-crisis period of 2000-2007 to 6.4% during the period 2013-17 (see figure A). b 30 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Figure A. Expected growth deceleration in developing Asia-Pacific is modest... Real annual GDP growth (%) Period-average growth (%) Period-average growth forecast (%) 2 1 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Sources: ESCAP, based on United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects, IMF World Economic Outlook, and World Bank Global Economic Prospects and World Development Indicators. Note: The period-average growth is for 1980-1989, 1990-1996, 1997-1998, 1999-2005, 2006-2007, 2008-2012 and 2013-2017. Figure B. …although a closer look suggests this could be much sharper in many economies Projected output growth, 2013-17 (%) 18 15 12 MNG BTN 9 CHN PNG LAO TKM KHM IDN LKA BGD UZB IND VNM MMR 6 KGZ TJK GEO AFG KAZ PHL THA MYS SLB VUT NPL TWN TUR ARM BRN KOR RUS PAK RUS AUS SGP 3 MDV AZE NZL KIR FJI WSM JPN IRN 0 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 Actual output growth, 2000-07 (%) Sources: ESCAP, based on United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects, IMF World Economic Outlook, and World Bank Global Economic Prospects. Note: Refer to explanatory notes for country abbreviations. Period- Although medium-term growth prospects remain relatively robust in historical terms, this masks two important concerns. • The crisis-related loss in output is sizeable. As compared to the pre-crisis pace of 7.3% per year, the output level by end-2017 would be more than 10% lower based on the scenario of actual growth during the period 2008-2012 and projected growth of 6.4% during the period 2013-2017. In value terms, the estimated loss amounts to almost $1.3 trillion by end-2017. • At a country level, several regional economies would suffer from substantially lower future growth than the region as a whole. Figure B plots the medium-term growth outlook against the pre-crisis trend. Most (27 out of 43) Asia-Pacific economies fall below the 45-degree line, which indicates a new normal of lower growth. In Armenia, Azerbaijan, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Samoa, future growth is projected at less than half of the pre-crisis pace, while Pakistan, the Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation and Singapore are also substantially affected. World Asia Pacific 45
Page 1 and 2:
UNDER EMBARGO UNTIL 03.30 GMT, THUR
Page 4 and 5:
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA
Page 7 and 8:
PREFACE The Economic and Social Sur
Page 9 and 10:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FORWARD-LOOKING M
Page 11 and 12:
on education and health. Indebted c
Page 13 and 14:
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was pr
Page 15 and 16:
CONTENTS Page Foreword ............
Page 17 and 18:
CONTENTS (continued) Page Australia
Page 19 and 20:
BOXES Page A. Forward-looking macro
Page 21 and 22:
FIGURES (continued) Page 1.20. Ineq
Page 23 and 24: TABLES Page 1.1. Main destination e
Page 25 and 26: References to dollars ($) are to Un
Page 27 and 28: ABBREVIATIONS ADB AEC APEC ASEAN AS
Page 29 and 30: SOURCES OF QUOTATIONS (a) Page 1: a
Page 31 and 32: WHY FORWARD-LOOKING MACROECONOMIC P
Page 35 and 36: ▲ WHY FORWARD-LOOKING MACROECONOM
Page 43 and 44: THE STATE OF INCLUSIVE AND SUSTAINA
Page 73: THE STATE OF INCLUSIVE AND SUSTAINA
Page 99 and 100: MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND POLIC
Page 125 and 126:
MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND POLIC
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
Page 145 and 146:
Page 147 and 148:
Page 149 and 150:
Page 151 and 152:
Page 153 and 154:
Page 155 and 156:
Page 157 and 158:
Page 159 and 160:
Page 161 and 162:
Page 163 and 164:
Page 165 and 166:
Page 167 and 168:
DEVELOPMENTAL MACROECONOMICS: THE C
Page 169 and 170:
Page 171 and 172:
Page 173 and 174:
Page 175 and 176:
Page 177 and 178:
Turkey Hong Kong, China Tajikistan
Page 179 and 180:
Page 181 and 182:
Page 183 and 184:
Page 185 and 186:
Page 187 and 188:
Page 189 and 190:
Page 191 and 192:
Page 193 and 194:
Page 195 and 196:
Page 197 and 198:
Page 199 and 200:
Page 201 and 202:
Page 203 and 204:
Page 205 and 206:
INVESTING IN INCLUSIVE AND SUSTAINA
Page 207 and 208:
Page 209 and 210:
Page 211 and 212:
Percentage of GDP INVESTING IN INCL
Page 213 and 214:
Page 215 and 216:
❚ ❚ ✕❚ INVESTING IN INCLUSI
Page 217 and 218:
Page 219 and 220:
Page 221 and 222:
Page 223 and 224:
Page 225 and 226:
Page 227 and 228:
Page 229 and 230:
Page 231 and 232:
Page 233 and 234:
Page 235 and 236:
Page 237 and 238:
207 REFERENCES
Page 239 and 240:
REFERENCES REFERENCES Abdyrasulova
Page 241 and 242:
REFERENCES (2012a). The debate on e
Page 243 and 244:
REFERENCES (2012). World Energy Out
Page 245 and 246:
REFERENCES Ma, K-H (2008). Assessme
Page 247 and 248:
REFERENCES (2011b). Child Poverty i
Page 249 and 250:
REFERENCES United Nations, Economic
Page 251 and 252:
STATISTICAL ANNEX STATISTICAL ANNEX
Page 253 and 254:
STATISTICAL ANNEX Table 2. Poverty
Page 255 and 256:
STATISTICAL ANNEX Table 4. Resource
Page 257 and 258:
STATISTICAL ANNEX Technical notes T
Page 259 and 260:
STATISTICAL ANNEX Source: Barro, Ro
Page 261 and 262:
STATISTICAL ANNEX estimates based o
Page 263 and 264:
This publication may be obtained fr
Page 265 and 266:
READERSHIP SURVEY The Macroeconomic
Page 268:
Half a decade since the onset of th
show all

Full Report - Subregional Office for East and North-East Asia - escap

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?