Full Report - Subregional Office for East and North-East Asia - escap

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 2013
Table 2.5. Rates of economic growth and inflation in South-East Asian economies, 2011-2013
(Percentage)
Real GDP growth
Inflation a
2011 2012 b 2013 c 2011 2012 b 2013 c
South-East Asia d 4.5 5.3 5.4 5.5 3.8 4.1
Brunei Darussalam 2.2 1.6 1.5 2.0 0.5 1.4
Cambodia 7.1 7.3 7.0 5.5 3.0 3.8
Indonesia 6.5 6.2 6.6 5.4 4.3 5.0
Lao People’s Democratic Republic 8.3 8.3 8.1 7.6 4.3 6.8
Malaysia 5.1 5.6 5.0 3.2 1.7 2.5
Myanmar 5.5 6.3 6.3 4.2 1.5 6.5
Philippines 3.7 6.6 6.2 4.8 3.1 4.1
Singapore 5.2 1.3 3.0 5.2 4.6 3.5
Thailand 0.1 6.4 5.3 3.8 3.0 3.1
Timor-Leste 10.6 10.0 10.0 13.5 12.0 8.0
Viet Nam 5.9 5.0 5.5 18.7 9.3 8.0
Sources: ESCAP, based on national sources; and CEIC Data Company Limited. Data available from http://ceicdata.com (accessed on 30 March 2013).
a Changes in consumer price index.
b Estimates.
c Forecasts (as of 30 March 2013).
d GDP figures at market prices in United States dollars in 2011 (at 2000 prices) are used as weights to calculate the subregional growth rates.
In Brunei Darussalam, which has one of the highest
per capita incomes in the world, the economy grew
by 1.6% in 2012, down from 2.2% in 2011, due to
a drop in oil and gas output, together will a fall
in liquefied natural gas (LNG) production. However,
non-oil and gas sector growth rose by 4% in 2012,
driven mainly by expansion in government services,
the wholesale and retail trade, business services
and water transport. Under the national development
strategy, entitled “Vision 2035”, the Government
has increased spending on tertiary education, while
making a commitment to reducing the country’s high
level of energy intensity and exploring alternative
energy as a potential source of business and job
creation. Efforts to diversify the economy are also
ongoing.
Cambodia has sustained a high level of economic
growth, led by garment exports. Although the
economy has somewhat slowed since the global
financial crisis, it expanded by a robust 7.1% in
2011 and 7.3% in 2012. Growth of garment exports
slowed in 2012, after having accelerated in 2011
under the European Union’s special market access
scheme. However, other drivers of growth, including
tourism and construction, grew at a faster rate
in 2012, while credit growth to the private sector
remained high. Agricultural output also benefited
from increased government support to small-scale
rice farmers under a scheme to promote milled rice
as a key export commodity. The economy, however,
faces the challenge of diversifying and moving up
the value chain from low-wage garment production.
Recent protests over forcible displacements from
land concessions also highlight the need for the
development process to be more just and inclusive.
In Indonesia, strong and sizeable domestic demand
has helped the economy to weather the global
downturn more resiliently than most other regional
peers. The economy expanded at 6.2% in 2012,
after recording a 6.5% growth rate in 2011, the
fastest pace in 14 years. The contribution of private
consumption to quarterly GDP growth increased
steadily over the year, underpinned by a tight labour
market, stable inflation and thus consumer optimism.
The contribution of gross fixed capital formation was
also buoyant. The fixed investment-to-GDP ratio
continued its upward trend in 2012 as a result of
improved macroeconomic fundamentals, currently
about a quarter of GDP. In contrast, exports of
goods and services held back growth, especially in
the second half of 2012 when shipments declined.
On the supply side, a solid expansion in the services
120