OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

Major Conclusions. Major conclusions that emerge are:-
Climate Change
Unmanaged population growth of Pakistan is putting huge strain on socio-economic
development and has been off setting limited economic gains.
Potential of youth is a time critical opportunity as well as challenge.
Unequal distribution of basic amenities in rural and urban areas is leading to rapid and
unplanned urbanization.
Megacities due to conurbation are becoming unmanageable. Hence, option of exploring new
sites of agro based towns and Export Zones along coastline is a necessity.
Dwindling limited resources leads to the choice of adoption of SAVE, ARRANGE or
SNATCH policy.
Institutionalization based on future vision is a key to harness potentials of the nation.
Human Resource is most prominent and ubiquitous. Labour surplus economies (like Pakistan)
demand pragmatic HRD policies and practices.
Public and private partnership drives entrepreneurships, sustain economic growth and provide
requisite thriving opportunity.
Lack of long term Developmental Strategy. Capitalizing on full potentials of human, natural
and manmade resources will lead to demographic dividends.
Trend. Climate change 7 is a change in the statistical distribution of weather over periods of time
that range from decades to millions of years. It is primarily triggered by global warming. The average
temperature of earth, generally agreed upon at 14 0 C has risen by about 0.74 0 C over the last century 8 . Ten
of the warmest years in recent history (since 1850) have been in past two decades. If the trend continues, it
is expected to increase by another 1.8° C to 4° C by the year 2100 9 .
Causes. The earth’s climate has remained in a state of perpetual change through history primarily
due to natural phenomena. Major natural causes include continental drift, volcanic activity, the earth’s tilt
and oceanic currents, variations in solar output, and Al-Nino and La-Nina Cycles 10 . These changes and the
resultant variations in atmospheric temperature will continue to happen in the future as well and are not
very predictable. After years of speculations, a scientists’ forum by the name of Intergovernmental Panel
for Climate Change (IPCC) was formed in 1988. Successive IPCC reports 11 have concluded with growing
confidence that the earth’s climate is indeed warming, and most worrisome are the anthropogenic (i.e.
human-induced) causes - particularly the burning of fossil fuels which releases CO 2 to the atmosphere.
These key conclusions are accepted by world’s leading climate scientists. Starting with the
industrial revolution in the 18 th century there has been a gradual rise in greenhouse gases (GHG) in the
atmosphere. There are a few important aspects that must be understood:-
GHG are a part of the atmosphere that help regulate the temperature of atmosphere through
greenhouse effect at its current level of 14 0 C 12 . A variation in their composition traps more
solar heat.
The prime human induced GHG in the atmosphere is carbon dioxide 13 . The contribution of
other gases is shown in the pie-chart.
The current concentration of CO2 in atmosphere is 391.07 particles per million, which is
highest ever in history 14 .
Contribution of energy sector in GHG is particularly conspicuous.
OPINION Vol.1 No.1 95 June 2013