OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

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Pakistan’s revenue from import duties will rise. In India, the business elite prevail over policy-makers. Driven by their own economic interests, Indian business community would never support hostile relations with Pakistan. It is therefore quite possible that a liberalized trade policy leads to improved relations between India and Pakistan. Pakistan can benefit with access to a market of over a billion consumers. India can gain trade access to CARs. Market competitiveness. Trade with D-8 Countries. Intra-D-8 trade was US $130 billion in 2011 68 , which was 7.5 per cent of the total trade of D-8 trade bloc 69 , however the bilateral trade and investment among D-8 member countries is yet to reach its full potential. It is expected that it could reach to US $500 billion in 2018 after the implementation of Preferential Trade Agreement among the member states. 70 Capital Flow. Pakistan relies heavily on remittances by Pakistani Diaspora. Last year Pakistanis contributed US $ 13 billion which is only possible in a globalized environment. As regards FDI, in the year 2011, total foreign investment inside Pakistan remained only US $ 812 million. It is pertinent to mention that Pakistan has tremendous potential of FDI which was over 5 Billion US Dollars in 2009. 71 Migration. Britain makes a staggering eight billion pounds in fees from international students. Ever since its inception, Pakistanis have been moving world-wide to earn a better livelihood. At present 1.984 % of the total population of Pakistan has migrated to various countries. 72 Other than the remittances from these immigrants, many Pakistani expatriates are members of local parliaments and hold esteemed places in domestic politics. They act as an effective lobby to further Pakistan’s core interest and those of the Muslim community. Pakistan is gifted with tremendous natural beauty and historical sites, which can attract tourism. Burgeoning Media and IT. Pakistan has a vibrant media which is emerging as an important pillar of the state. With over 20 million internet users and over 120 million mobile phone users 73 ; adequate means are already in place for Pakistanis to reap the benefits of globalization. Recommendations The research leads one to believe that globalization as a phenomenon is here to stay. That it is not a matter of choice but a compulsion is a foregone conclusion. However, prudence should be the rule of the thumb. We must not try to run before we have learnt to walk since globalization is boon as well as bane. In a globalized world, only those nations stand chance to succeed which excel in knowledge, information and technology. Countries having strong work ethics, sound educational system, social and economic justice, political stability and the rule of law can convert the challenges of globalization into opportunities. By and large, Pakistan has benefitted from globalization but not commensurate to its potential. Much remains to be done, for which the panel offers Policy Options and certain recommendations. Policy Options. Guarding of our national identity and vital interests will remain supreme as a rider clause in any option we adopt. Two policy options are available: Option – 1 - Globalization Model as per Dynamics of Pakistan. This option will neither be a classical Neo-Realist nor a Neo-Liberal approach. Instead it is a blend of both in conformity with our peculiar geo-economic and geo-political dynamics. Option – 2 - Liberalist Approach. In this option, Pakistan will embrace globalization in all its manifestations, in true letter and spirit of the concept of globalization. Recommended Option. Having discussed the opportunities and challenges globalization offers to us, the panel recommends option-1 for Pakistan. We must see the issues from a practical perspective rather than seeing them from the spectacle of an exotic thought. Policy Parameters. To accrue greater advantages from the phenomenon of globalization, Pakistan must follow a policy of positivity and goodwill encompassing parameters of Comprehensive National Security, Equality, Cooperation & Collaboration, and Interdependency & Mutual Benefits. OPINION Vol.1 No.1 74 June 2013
Imperatives for Reaping the Benefits of Globalization. These include political / internal stability, consistency in policies, good governance, macro-economic stability and knowledge-based economy, energy self-sufficiency, technological / educational base, Human Resource Development (HRD), and soft image. Contours of Foreign Policy. To achieve real dividends of globalization, contours of foreign policy also need to be defined. These include:- State Sovereignty. Even though part of the greater international community wherein important foreign policy decisions cannot be taken in isolation, Pakistan must take important decisions in line with its supreme national interests and aspirations of its masses. We have to be part of global community on important issues including terrorism. But our geographical and ideological boundaries are sacrosanct and inviolable. Geographical intrusions in the recent past are a brazen act of violation of our sovereignty and beyond compromise. The government must take a strong diplomatic stance with US on these issues. War on Terror. While we must abhor terrorism in all its forms and there are no qualms about it; we must tailor the approach towards fighting it out. We must build national consensus to acknowledge that the on-going counter-terrorism campaign is critical to our national security. The campaign should be given a national colour and decision to launch operation in North Waziristan Agency (NWA), and role in Afghan reconciliation process should be in line with our overall counter terrorism strategy and not on any foreign dictates. The ‘Do More’ Mantra should rather be reversed. Regional vs Global Approach. The importance of regionalism cannot be over-emphasized. In Pakistan’s perspective, ‘Look East’ policy is therefore a recommended course of action for Pakistan. 74 However, we should shun ‘either’ and ‘or’ from our glossary and learn to manage relations with multiple centers of power simultaneously. Economic Organizations vs Security Organizations. It has been historically proven that our entry into any security assistance program has adversely affected us in the long run. It is also a bitter conclusion that no country would fend for another in the times of crises. It is therefore recommended that we must prefer economic cooperation organizations more than the security related organizations. However, an economic organization morphing into security organization can also be worked out essentially at regional level. Adopting ‘Politics of Globalization’ Approach / Threat Mitigation. Pakistan must manage relations with India and re-orientate our relationship with US on new lines based on equality and mutual respect. We must exude positivity and appear as a responsible and dependable nation which plays an important role in international politics. Being a likeable figure in the international arena is likely to go a long way in helping us achieve international justice on issues of national security. Economic Policy. Following is suggested in this regard:- Economic Sovereignty. Economic sovereignty once achieved, political and geographical sovereignty will also be assured. We must make an earnest effort to gradually rid ourselves of the IFIs and donor countries. Only then can we take independent decisions best suited for our country. International Trade. We must diversify our trade and think beyond EU, US and Middle East. Africa and Asia-Pacific especially Australia is a huge market which must be capitalized. Measures to enhance international competitiveness are product diversification, value addition, widening industrial base, Quality Control, shifting from low to high tech production, HRD, and focus on branding and marketing. Regional Trade. We must open-up trade with India on the basis of economic centrality to increase its stakes inside Pakistan. This can be a step towards threat mitigation. However, concerns of our industrialists must be addressed in a pragmatic manner to enable level playing field. Both the countries must resort to direct instead of indirect trade. Pakistan must engage India to reduce its safeguard policies and NTBs. We must also reactivate the forums of ECO and SAARC to fully utilize the trade potentials. OPINION Vol.1 No.1 75 June 2013
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O P I N I O N VOL.1, NO.1 JUNE 2013
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MESSAGE OF PATRON The depth of know
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Part-1 Global / R
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Introduction SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA
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Hydropower Resources. Tajikistan is
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post-Arab Spring transition in the
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Opportunities • Russian aspiratio
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Infrastructural Development It
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Introduction AL QAEDA AND THE MUSLI
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Attacks in mainland USA - 09 Sep 20
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of peace negotiations, saying that
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Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan. Aft
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Reactive Strategy against Al Qaeda.
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Deportation / Repatriation of Illeg
Page 29 and 30: COERCIVE STATECRAFT "The most compl
Page 31 and 32: US Coercion of USSR - Cuban Missile
Page 33 and 34: Indian Coercion of Pakistan - Opera
Page 35 and 36: • Determine the punishment regime
Page 37 and 38: other states, or produce counter na
Page 39 and 40: Introduction RISING INDIA - A CRITI
Page 41 and 42: protecting Indian investments overs
Page 43 and 44: India’s Military. Indian military
Page 45 and 46: India has neither been able to prod
Page 47 and 48: In an idealistic scenario, where In
Page 49 and 50: Introduction RISING POWERS AND GLOB
Page 51 and 52: come to dominate the 21 st century
Page 53 and 54: In the face of the growing importan
Page 55 and 56: Better Security Hope in Sight Prosp
Page 57 and 58: power in central and provincial gov
Page 59 and 60: Introduction ARAB UPRISING - A CRIT
Page 61 and 62: Abd-al-Rab Mansur Al Hadi assumed p
Page 63 and 64: the region of Northwest Africa, wes
Page 65 and 66: Transparency International report f
Page 67 and 68: leading to the best case scenario.
Page 69 and 70: Recommended Areas for Immediate Att
Page 71 and 72: PART - 2 National Security ‣ Glob
Page 73 and 74: the establishment of the Bretton Wo
Page 75 and 76: Globalization and Poverty Alleviati
Page 77 and 78: years and yet an air of distrust st
Page 79: can cause capital flight, which is
Page 83 and 84: Conclusion of other hostile element
Page 85 and 86: 58 TasneemNoorani, “MFN Status an
Page 87 and 88: Elections 2014 Joint appeal to the
Page 89 and 90: Tranche 1: began transition in July
Page 91 and 92: PART- IV FUTURE AFGHAN SCENARIOS AN
Page 93 and 94: Indian and Chinese involvement in d
Page 95 and 96: influence and eastern and southern
Page 97 and 98: scenario would have grave implicati
Page 99 and 100: In present day Asia, three big demo
Page 101 and 102: Major Conclusions. Major conclusion
Page 103 and 104: The increase in glacial melting may
Page 105 and 106: Demography. Unplanned expansion of
Page 107 and 108: Legislate to ensure energy efficien
Page 109 and 110: 26 http://www.pmd.gov.pk/rnd/rnd_fi
Page 111 and 112: INDO - PAK CONFLICTS; 1998 TO DATE
Page 113 and 114: During the conflict, leaders/offici
Page 115 and 116: Pakistan, India, without any formal
Page 117 and 118: or the establishment of stability a
Page 119 and 120: Researchers: Supervisor: Brig Asim
Page 121 and 122: The Stone Age of Campaigning. Durin
Page 123 and 124: Technological Advancements - WW 1 F
Page 125 and 126: American Operational Art - WW II O
Page 127 and 128: war began. By early 1951, the fight
Page 129 and 130: • Freedom of Action for Afghan Fi
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WW-2 • Joint Warfare. • Amphibi
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35 Antulio J. Echevarria II, “Ame
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are not necessarily new. The four e
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Fifth Generation Warfare Theoretica
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• Terrorists now have transnation
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hierarchical organizations. Technol
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Conclusion Force Multipliers. Avail
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PART - 4 VIEWS ‣ Human Security O
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Commission for Human Security, co c
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3 P.H. Liotta and Taylor Owen, “W
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OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

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