OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

Trade links and corridors for CARs are not fully actualized.
Scenario Unfolding
The accumulative effects of better security and relatively poor economy would be seen in the
shape of setting the course right through strategic orientation. In this scenario, time would be the essence.
The economic dividends would not be experienced in the short term; however it would start appearing in
mid to long term perspective. This will be somewhat closer to the Malaysian model in which the essence
was to restructure and reform the institutions and systems and put them in line with international prerequisites.
Law and order situation would gradually improve, unrest and crime would recede. Hope would
start influencing collective behaviour patterns. Seeing the resolve and competence of political leadership,
the FDIs would also gradually but slowly start pouring in. Benefits from indigenous natural resources
would become more visible. The country would be on the right trajectory to progress and prosperity.
Scenario 3 - Anarchy Reigns
Assumptions
Domestic insecurity prevails. VNSAs are ensuring relevance and nuisance through high profile
violent activities.
Pakistan’s capacity to handle its relations with major regional and world powers has shrunk badly.
Resultantly, the country suffers isolation in the international arena.
Pakistan’s relevance in the geo-political and geo-economic environment is only restricted to
exporting terrorism, extremism and radicalism in the eyes of the global community.
Economy is heavily dependent on IFIs, no FDIs coming to the country.
Population has expanded beyond proportions and absence of human resource development is
causing widespread crimes and breeding terrorism.
Scenario Unfolding
Protracted/ intense insecurity and poor economic conditions would widen the gulf between haves
and have-nots. The internal security situation would reach unmanageable limits where anarchy would
reign. No one will be safe against no one, state institutions would collapse. Violence would dictate day-today
life. The extremists would be enjoying power over everyone else. There will be no semblance of
nation or statehood. Sovereignty would not exist. Separatists would have wielded disproportionate powers
and playing in the hands of regional and international players. Pakistan would be divided on ethnic and
sectarian basis. Powerful countries would be yielding benefits from our resources. There would be no signs
of ideology or territorial integrity.
Scenario 4 - Oligarchy
Assumptions
Thar Coal reservoirs tapped to its true potential and energy crisis resolved through larger shares for
Sindh government with direct foreign investment orchestrated through institutional bribery, terms
and conditions heavily in favour of the foreign partners.
Reqo dek project actualized and anomalies not removed at the behest of international powers.
Larger shares for Balochistan government and foreign partners with significant shares going to the
sub-nationalists.
Poor governance continues, however political process remains uninterrupted. Weak central
government is running the projects through monopolization and selected groups of politicians in
both provinces. Some international powers continue to support the incompetent political leadership
to ensure controlled instability in the country.
Reconciliation with TTP not materialized.
Scenario Unfolding
This scenario will take shape due to an unexpected gelling of insecurity but improved economic
base due to some strategic natural resources’ activation. However, the select group of politicians remain in
OPINION Vol.1 No.1 50 June 2013