OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

Introduction
RISING INDIA - A CRITICAL APPRAISAL
More than sixty five years ago, in 1947, the Indian nation was struggling for its very survival.
Recovering from the shattered dreams of ‘Akhand Bharat’ with urgency to resettle eight million refugees;
provided with land, homes, employment and a sense of citizenship. Over five hundred and sixty princely
states 1 had to be integrated. The question then being asked everywhere was ‘Will India Survive’ Now,
sixty-five years down the road, that fearful query has been replaced by a far more impressive one, namely,
‘Will India become a Great Power’
There are different theories which examine the phenomenon of the Rise of the Nations. Professor
Alastair Johnston of Harvard University has suggested following criterion 2 :-
In material context, is there an increase in a state’s capabilities in either relative or absolute
sense
In historical context, is the rising state more powerful than the past
In diplomatic context is the state more engaged in the world than previously
In competing context, how do other states view the rising state having a larger role in the world
than in the past
In domestic context, does the state increasingly affect the lives of ordinary people
In terms of measures of power, what are the net capabilities in terms of power projection, control
over territory, alliance construction, share of world material capabilities, and the collective will to
assume the role of a great power.
Keeping the above criterion in mind, does India deserve the status of a great power by any
measure, has to be analysed by close examination of factors like the extent and strategic location of its
territory; the size and dynamism of its population; the value and growth rate of its economy; the increased
trade volume; the inflow of foreign direct investments; the entrepreneurial drive especially in cutting-edge
sectors like information technology; the creation of an ever larger and ever more confident middle class
and the strength of its military.
In international arena, United States needs India to become a true global power so as to guard her
interests in the region. In the historical context India has all the advantages the United States once had in
her infancy: size, diversity, strategic location, a stable government and a thriving economy. Now India
aspires to convert these advantages into raw power. Nonetheless, world will not grant India that status
because of her size and economic potential alone; India has to reach out and grab it 3 . This article is about a
critical appraisal of the Indian competing prospects and problems; enabling or hindering to achieve such a
coveted status.
Important Landmarks from Indian History
In 1950, India’s share of global wealth was just over four percent as compared to sixteen percent in
1820 4 ; erosion of Indian wealth continued after independence. Marginal growth rates with phenomenal
expansion in population made rich richer and poor a bit less poor. Between 1950 and 1980, the socialist
model remained applied in India and produced disappointing results. Over a period of 30 years, India’s
gross domestic product (GDP) grew by an average of 3.7 per cent per annum while the population virtually
got doubled from 372 to 689 million people. The per capita annual average growth rate was a mere 1.5 per
cent. It came to be known as the ‘Hindu Rate of Growth’ 5 .
In 1980s, the Indian Government displayed reluctance to turn back on longstanding policy of
curbing and regulating the private sector. Rajiv Gandhi on assumption of office, committed himself to
deregulation, import liberalization and access to foreign technology, recognizing the role of private sector
in economic development. 6 It was only in the early 1990s that there was an evident radical change in
course. The immediate cause for this change was the threat of bankruptcy facing the Indian state in 1991.
Major shift in Indian foreign policy was also noticed in 1990s 7 . The cardinal of change included shift from
a ‘Socialist to building a ‘Modern Capitalist Society’ with increased emphasis on geo-economics. Here,
India also started cherishing status of an emerging global power status with demonstration of flexibility to
heed to pro-west alliances; shift from idealism to realism.
OPINION Vol.1 No.1 33 June 2013