OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

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20 DHNS, Demographic dividend can boost Indian economy: IMF, Deccan Herald, New Delhi 29 Apr 2012, http://www.deccanherald.com/content/245837/demographic-dividend-can-boost-indian.html (Accessed on 28 Sep 2012). 21 Ibid. 22 Max Davidson, 1,000 new universities for India Telegraph, 10 Sep 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/expateducation/7634544/1000-new-universities-for-India.html, (Accessed on 15 Jun 2012). 23 Amb. Karl F. Inderfurth and Persis Khambatta, The Indian-American Diaspora: Ties that Bind, Centre for International and Strategic Studies, Vol 2, Issue 9, Sep 2012, p2. 24 Rani D. Mullen, The Rise of India's Soft Power, Foreign Policy, May 2012, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/05/08/the_rise_of_indian_soft_power (Accessed on 15 Jul 2012). 25 Gurmeet Kanwal, India’s Military’s Modernisation: Plans and Strategic Underpinnings, September 2012, http://www.nbr.org/downloads/pdfs/Outreach/NBR_IndiaCaucus_September2012.pdf (Accessed on 12 Oct 2012). 26 Vinay Kumar, “Credible Navy Need of the Hour: Antony,” Hindu, July 21, 2012. 27 Ruchir Sharma, Breakout Nations, In Pursuit of Next Economic Miracles, (Penguin Books: April 2012). 28 Dr Khalid Mahmud, The India Shining ; Paradox Islands of Excellence Vs Ocean of Backwardness, The Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad, 2006, VOL 25; NUMB 1, pages 3-28. 29 Pratap Bhanu Mehta, Something new is taking shape in India amid the gloob, South Asia Monitor, Jun 2012, http://southasiamonitor.org/detail.phptype=n&nid=3087 (Accessed on 24 Jun 2012). 30 William J. Antholis, Nine Weeks, Eleven States, One India, Brookings, Rising Power Unions No 12 of 12, April 2012. 31 Irfan Husain, Big country with a small heart, Dawn 9 Jul 2011, http://dawn.com/2011/07/09/big-country-with-a-smallheart/(Accessed on 25 Oct 2012). 32 Indian Economic Survey 2011-12: Highlights, Economic Times, 15 Mar 2012 http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/economic-survey-2011-12-highlights/articleshow/12274267.cms (Accessed on 29 Oct 2012). 33 Reserve Bank of India. 34 Policy Brief, Energy, National Bureau of Asian Studies. 35 Indian court cancelled licenses in Telecom Scandal, Reuter, 2 Feb 2012, www.reuter.com (Accessed on 28 Jul 2012). 36 India's Shocking Corruption Scams, Silicon India News, 27 Aug 2012, http://www.siliconindia.com/news/general/Indias- Shocking-Corruption-Scams-nid-127480-cid-1.html (Accessed on 24 Sep 2012). 37 UNICEF Report 2011. 38 Ministry of Statistics, Government of India. 39 Stephen P. Cohen, India; Emerging Power, Oxford University Press: 2001), p.26 40 Chidanand Rajghatta , India rising in US: Govt falls victim to net hoax, Times of India 12 Mar 2008, http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2008-03-12/us/27742502_1_indian-origin-indian-parliament-indian-americans (Accessed on 26 Oct 2012). 41 Ashley J. Tellis and Michael Wills Military Modernization in an Era of Uncertainty, India and Pakistan: A Shift in the Military Calculus, 2011, National Bureau of Asian Research OPINION Vol.1 No.1 42 June 2013
Introduction RISING POWERS AND GLOBAL BALANCE OF POWER “The inevitable never happens. It is the unexpected always” Lord Keynes No one can forecast the future with certainty, though immediate future can be predicted with relative correctness based on contemporary realities, tendencies, drivers and trends. The cold war has ended. The US no longer faces the constant threat of aggression from its erstwhile adversary, the former USSR. Did someone ever forecast the demise of USSR, US emerging as the sole super power or the attack on the Twin Towers Throughout history we can see the “Balance of Power Concept” in action. The clearest example of the balance of power concept can be found in the Cold War wherein two superpowers, the US and the USSR, held world balance between them. Both states sought to deter domination by the other through arms build up and the creation of strong systems of alliances. In the contemporary world, power is distributed in a complex manner. Militarily the world is largely uni-polar; economically it is multi-polar, while in the third tier we find the transnational relations that goes beyond the borders and also outside the government control. Sequel to the Cold War, the United States emerged as the sole super power in the world. No single state acted as effective counterweight to the US. However, some shifts have been witnessed recently due to globalization, market forces and operation of non state actors without regard for national boundaries and loyalties. Prehistoric and Medieval Periods HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE OF BALANCE OF POWER Irrigation systems, bureaucracies, and large armies came into existence in China (403-221 BC) with the development of large and cohesive states. States pursued their interests through alliances. In Greece as well, during the Peloponnesian Wars (431-404 BC), the hegemony of Athens triggered the formation of city-states’ coalition that felt threatened by Athenian power. Pre World Wars Period During the Thirty Years’ War (1618-1648), Sweden, England, France, and The Netherlands formed an alliance and defeated the leaders of the Habsburg Empire. In 1815, France was beaten by a broad nexus of European states including Britain, Russia, Austria, and Prussia. A broad coalition called ‘the concert of Europe’ emerged and balanced the power in the continent of Europe. This alliance between Russia, Britain, France Prussia and Austria maintained balance of power in a manner that no state was able to dominate the other. Inter and Intra World Wars Period (1914-1945) At the outbreak of First World War, all states made endeavours to ensure that balance of power remains intact, however due to irresponsible behaviour of some kings and princes and that of their states, the efforts could not be realized. German rulers floated the idea that her neighbours were harbouring evil designs and thus the sovereignty of Germany was being challenged. On the other hand, the neighbours were of the view that Germany was becoming very powerful and their ideals in the continent were at risk. Therefore a strong and formidable alliance was constituted in Europe. Threat from Germany was so grave that even USA parted ways with its concept of neutrality and joined the European Alliance. Almost a similar environment was experienced before World War II. Cold War Period USA and the USSR entered in a direct confrontation mode however nuclear weapons prevented both from entering into an armed conflict. This state of strategic parity gave birth to cold war. This parity evolved with passage of time in a manner that both sides exercised strategic restraint to the extent that even a signal would be avoided which could trigger a nuclear war between the two and thus the balance of power was maintained. The environment started changing with the collapse of the USSR. Post Cold War This period saw the demise of USSR and America USA surfaced as the only super power which had the capacity, capability and resolve to project and demonstrate power in any part of the world. Such OPINION Vol.1 No.1 43 June 2013
Page 1 and 2: O P I N I O N VOL.1, NO.1 JUNE 2013
Page 3 and 4: MESSAGE OF PATRON The depth of know
Page 5 and 6: TABLE OF CONTENTS Part-1 Global / R
Page 7 and 8: Introduction SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA
Page 9 and 10: Hydropower Resources. Tajikistan is
Page 11 and 12: post-Arab Spring transition in the
Page 13 and 14: Opportunities • Russian aspiratio
Page 15 and 16: Infrastructural Development It
Page 17 and 18: Introduction AL QAEDA AND THE MUSLI
Page 19 and 20: Attacks in mainland USA - 09 Sep 20
Page 21 and 22: of peace negotiations, saying that
Page 23 and 24: Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan. Aft
Page 25 and 26: Reactive Strategy against Al Qaeda.
Page 27 and 28: Deportation / Repatriation of Illeg
Page 29 and 30: COERCIVE STATECRAFT "The most compl
Page 31 and 32: US Coercion of USSR - Cuban Missile
Page 33 and 34: Indian Coercion of Pakistan - Opera
Page 35 and 36: • Determine the punishment regime
Page 37 and 38: other states, or produce counter na
Page 39 and 40: Introduction RISING INDIA - A CRITI
Page 41 and 42: protecting Indian investments overs
Page 43 and 44: India’s Military. Indian military
Page 45 and 46: India has neither been able to prod
Page 47: In an idealistic scenario, where In
Page 51 and 52: come to dominate the 21 st century
Page 53 and 54: In the face of the growing importan
Page 55 and 56: Better Security Hope in Sight Prosp
Page 57 and 58: power in central and provincial gov
Page 59 and 60: Introduction ARAB UPRISING - A CRIT
Page 61 and 62: Abd-al-Rab Mansur Al Hadi assumed p
Page 63 and 64: the region of Northwest Africa, wes
Page 65 and 66: Transparency International report f
Page 67 and 68: leading to the best case scenario.
Page 69 and 70: Recommended Areas for Immediate Att
Page 71 and 72: PART - 2 National Security ‣ Glob
Page 73 and 74: the establishment of the Bretton Wo
Page 75 and 76: Globalization and Poverty Alleviati
Page 77 and 78: years and yet an air of distrust st
Page 79 and 80: can cause capital flight, which is
Page 81 and 82: Imperatives for Reaping the Benefit
Page 83 and 84: Conclusion of other hostile element
Page 85 and 86: 58 TasneemNoorani, “MFN Status an
Page 87 and 88: Elections 2014 Joint appeal to the
Page 89 and 90: Tranche 1: began transition in July
Page 91 and 92: PART- IV FUTURE AFGHAN SCENARIOS AN
Page 93 and 94: Indian and Chinese involvement in d
Page 95 and 96: influence and eastern and southern
Page 97 and 98: scenario would have grave implicati
Page 99 and 100:
In present day Asia, three big demo
Page 101 and 102:
Major Conclusions. Major conclusion
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The increase in glacial melting may
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Demography. Unplanned expansion of
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Legislate to ensure energy efficien
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26 http://www.pmd.gov.pk/rnd/rnd_fi
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INDO - PAK CONFLICTS; 1998 TO DATE
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During the conflict, leaders/offici
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Pakistan, India, without any formal
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or the establishment of stability a
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Researchers: Supervisor: Brig Asim
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The Stone Age of Campaigning. Durin
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Technological Advancements - WW 1 F
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American Operational Art - WW II O
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war began. By early 1951, the fight
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• Freedom of Action for Afghan Fi
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WW-2 • Joint Warfare. • Amphibi
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35 Antulio J. Echevarria II, “Ame
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are not necessarily new. The four e
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Fifth Generation Warfare Theoretica
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• Terrorists now have transnation
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hierarchical organizations. Technol
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Conclusion Force Multipliers. Avail
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PART - 4 VIEWS ‣ Human Security O
Page 147 and 148:
Commission for Human Security, co c
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3 P.H. Liotta and Taylor Owen, “W
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