OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

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SWOT Analysis, Trends and Drivers The spectrum of Pakistan’s political, economic, and social and security domains are full of vulnerabilities, insecurities, strengths and hopes. The SWOT analysis is as under:- Strengths Abundant natural resources, hydro power potential, low cost human resource, Pakistani Diaspora, resilient society, geostrategic location and relevance and military and nuclear deterrence. Weaknesses Poor economy, internal security instability due to terrorism, extremism, ethnicity and sectarianism, absence of HRD, high population growth rate, absence of strategic leadership, poor governance, social injustice and corruption, political expediencies, absence of National Security Policy framework and image deficit. Opportunities Relevance in the contemporary international environment. Potential to exploit regional, global energy/ trade links. Exploration of untapped natural resources. Continuation of democratic process. Post 2014 Afghanistan. Diversification of geo-economic/ geopolitical relations with emerging power centres. Threats Economic instability, population explosion and raw youth bulge, Violent Non State Actors, absence of national cohesion, political expediency at the cost of national interests, social injustice, spill-over effects of instability in Afghanistan, kinetic and non-kinetic threats from India, presence of ERF in the region, ecological changes and geographic fault lines. Major international trends along with key drivers acting as catalyst for change are: Mega and Domestic Trends Shift from geo-politics to geoeconomics. Globalization. Rise of Asia as economic centre of gravity. Anti Americanism. Trade ties with India. Consensus on Afghan led and owned peace process. Media activism. Susceptibility to violation of sovereignty. Religious and sectarian militancy. Drivers-Catalysts of Change Economy. States’ international status is being ascertained through its economic prowess. Security/Transnational Terrorism. World’s unanimity against terrorism and those sponsoring it, invites a global response. Current environment and terrorism threshold in Pakistan puts it in the eye of the storm at international level. Quest for Energy and Natural Resources. Powerful countries continue to access new sources of energy and natural resources to keep their economic engines running. Scenarios. Four scenarios based on critical drivers; i.e., economy and security are visualised as under:- OPINION Vol.1 No.1 48 June 2013
Better Security Hope in Sight Prosperous Pakistan Weak Economy Anarchy Reigns Oligarchy Strong Economy Scenario 1 - Prosperous Pakistan Assumptions Security situation is improved. Al Qaeda defeated and Taliban emancipated in political process of Afghanistan. TTP emancipated and marginalized. Economy improved. Relations with US are friendly, China has become a strategic partner, India and Pakistan enjoy good working relations, and relations with Russia strategized. Afghanistan has friendly outlook towards Pakistan. Pakistan’s relevance in the geo-political and geo-economic environment has been accepted and actualized. Dependence on IFIs reduced, FDIs pouring in and exploration of natural resources operationalized to a great extent. Scenario Unfolding The fusion of better security and good economy would have eradicated most of Pakistan’s social and security problems. Pakistan would have become a productive member of the international community. A new social contract would be regulating the collective behaviour. Foreign direct investments would have enabled Pakistan to explore its true potential of natural resources, energy needs, water management etc. Our core issues with India would have been mostly resolved. Trade links with CARs would have been established and Pakistan would be a thriving market and transit for trade. Tourism would be flourishing and our deserts and mountains would be hotspots for international expeditions. Quality communication infrastructure would be in place. Education would be thriving. Major metropolitans would be hubs of excellence in IT, science and technology. Peace and tranquillity would be prevailing. Scenario 2 - Hope in Sight Assumptions Poor Security Transnational terrorism reduced. VNSAs being integrated into mainstream social order. Relations with US are friendly, China has become a strategic partner, India and Pakistan enjoy good working relations, and relations with Russia strategized. Afghanistan has friendly outlook towards Pakistan. Pakistan’s relevance in the geo-political and geo-economic environment has been accepted. Dependence on IFIs though reduced, yet radiates challenges for policy makers. Confidence of foreign investors is still in the embryonic stages however, some FDIs have started pouring in. Efforts to explore natural resources are in hand, full potential not yet realized. OPINION Vol.1 No.1 49 June 2013
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O P I N I O N VOL.1, NO.1 JUNE 2013
Page 3 and 4: MESSAGE OF PATRON The depth of know
Page 5 and 6: TABLE OF CONTENTS Part-1 Global / R
Page 7 and 8: Introduction SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA
Page 9 and 10: Hydropower Resources. Tajikistan is
Page 11 and 12: post-Arab Spring transition in the
Page 13 and 14: Opportunities • Russian aspiratio
Page 15 and 16: Infrastructural Development It
Page 17 and 18: Introduction AL QAEDA AND THE MUSLI
Page 19 and 20: Attacks in mainland USA - 09 Sep 20
Page 21 and 22: of peace negotiations, saying that
Page 23 and 24: Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan. Aft
Page 25 and 26: Reactive Strategy against Al Qaeda.
Page 27 and 28: Deportation / Repatriation of Illeg
Page 29 and 30: COERCIVE STATECRAFT "The most compl
Page 31 and 32: US Coercion of USSR - Cuban Missile
Page 33 and 34: Indian Coercion of Pakistan - Opera
Page 35 and 36: • Determine the punishment regime
Page 37 and 38: other states, or produce counter na
Page 39 and 40: Introduction RISING INDIA - A CRITI
Page 41 and 42: protecting Indian investments overs
Page 43 and 44: India’s Military. Indian military
Page 45 and 46: India has neither been able to prod
Page 47 and 48: In an idealistic scenario, where In
Page 49 and 50: Introduction RISING POWERS AND GLOB
Page 51 and 52: come to dominate the 21 st century
Page 53: In the face of the growing importan
Page 57 and 58: power in central and provincial gov
Page 59 and 60: Introduction ARAB UPRISING - A CRIT
Page 61 and 62: Abd-al-Rab Mansur Al Hadi assumed p
Page 63 and 64: the region of Northwest Africa, wes
Page 65 and 66: Transparency International report f
Page 67 and 68: leading to the best case scenario.
Page 69 and 70: Recommended Areas for Immediate Att
Page 71 and 72: PART - 2 National Security ‣ Glob
Page 73 and 74: the establishment of the Bretton Wo
Page 75 and 76: Globalization and Poverty Alleviati
Page 77 and 78: years and yet an air of distrust st
Page 79 and 80: can cause capital flight, which is
Page 81 and 82: Imperatives for Reaping the Benefit
Page 83 and 84: Conclusion of other hostile element
Page 85 and 86: 58 TasneemNoorani, “MFN Status an
Page 87 and 88: Elections 2014 Joint appeal to the
Page 89 and 90: Tranche 1: began transition in July
Page 91 and 92: PART- IV FUTURE AFGHAN SCENARIOS AN
Page 93 and 94: Indian and Chinese involvement in d
Page 95 and 96: influence and eastern and southern
Page 97 and 98: scenario would have grave implicati
Page 99 and 100: In present day Asia, three big demo
Page 101 and 102: Major Conclusions. Major conclusion
Page 103 and 104: The increase in glacial melting may
Page 105 and 106:
Demography. Unplanned expansion of
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Legislate to ensure energy efficien
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26 http://www.pmd.gov.pk/rnd/rnd_fi
Page 111 and 112:
INDO - PAK CONFLICTS; 1998 TO DATE
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During the conflict, leaders/offici
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Pakistan, India, without any formal
Page 117 and 118:
or the establishment of stability a
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Researchers: Supervisor: Brig Asim
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The Stone Age of Campaigning. Durin
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Technological Advancements - WW 1 F
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American Operational Art - WW II O
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war began. By early 1951, the fight
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• Freedom of Action for Afghan Fi
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WW-2 • Joint Warfare. • Amphibi
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35 Antulio J. Echevarria II, “Ame
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are not necessarily new. The four e
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Fifth Generation Warfare Theoretica
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• Terrorists now have transnation
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hierarchical organizations. Technol
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Conclusion Force Multipliers. Avail
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PART - 4 VIEWS ‣ Human Security O
Page 147 and 148:
Commission for Human Security, co c
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3 P.H. Liotta and Taylor Owen, “W
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