OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University
OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University
OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University
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Opportunities<br />
• Russian aspirations to retain her influence over CARs.<br />
• Though Pak-Russia relations are improving, these are still far from friendly.<br />
• Possible competition with Iran (Gwadar vs Chabahar).<br />
• A viable mechanism to achieve inter-regional cooperation.<br />
Additional Challenges. Few other challenges are:-<br />
• Evaluation of trade terms with India – implications of granting MFN status.<br />
• Existing constraints to economic and energy cooperation in the fields of physical, institutional<br />
and policy measures.<br />
• Development of communication infrastructure linking Gwadar.<br />
• Regional approach to address the problem of militant organizations.<br />
• Border security issues.<br />
Regional Context. In the regional context, major opportunities are:-<br />
• Using the SCO’s platform, a proactive regional role can be mustered for peace and stability in<br />
Afghanistan.<br />
• Pakistan provides the shortest routes from Central Asia to the sea ports coupled with an enhanced<br />
cargo capacity at Gwadar.<br />
• Pakistan’s membership and association of all regional organizations lends us a unique position to<br />
facilitate inter-regional cooperation.<br />
• Being member of SAARC and ECO, Pakistan could facilitate the extension of ECO's Transit<br />
Transport Framework Agreement to South Asia.<br />
• CASA-1000 and TAPI can create a track-record to enhance inter-regional cooperation.<br />
• APTTA can be extended to all CARs.<br />
• Transport corridor of Almaty-Karachi road has the potential to attract the attention of CARs.<br />
• The already agreed Pak-Afghan-Tajik route can become a trade corridor.<br />
• Inter-regional trade will generate lot of transit revenues.<br />
Bilateral Context. Following are the major opportunities for Pakistan:-<br />
• Indian growing energy demands have strengthened Pakistan’s prospect of serving as a trade and<br />
energy corridor. Indo-Pak cooperation in trade and energy sector can facilitate both countries in<br />
terms of socio-economic development and promotion of peace and stability in the region.<br />
• There is vast scope for economic cooperation between Central Asia and Pakistan. Pakistan can<br />
import various natural resources and, in return, can offer assistance in the areas of banking,<br />
textiles, footwear, sports, hydropower, construction, agricultural products, hotel industry and<br />
pharmaceuticals.<br />
• We can offer services of NADRA, other education and training facilities.<br />
• Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan offer more opportunities for joint industrial ventures.<br />
• Pakistan’s expertise in defence equipment offers another opportunity.<br />
• Central Asia presents lot of avenues for the role of private sector.<br />
Possible Scenarios. Given various internal and external drivers, few scenarios which could emerge in the<br />
context of inter-regional cooperation in 10 – 15 years timeframe are:-<br />
Scenario – 1 (Most Likely). ‘No war and no peace’ like situation persists in Afghanistan. The<br />
efforts to effect inter-regional cooperation will bear partial results. CASA-1000 is likely to<br />
materialize, while TAPI remains in doldrums; trade may increase by 20 – 30% from the current level.<br />
The Iranian route will fetch better trading activity for CARs. However, the Almaty – Karachi route<br />
<strong>OPINION</strong> <strong>Vol.1</strong> <strong>No.1</strong> 7 <strong>June</strong> <strong>2013</strong>