OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

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• Non-state actors will not be the main repository of hybrid challenges as under pressure, states can also shift conventional units to fight irregularly 31 . • Future warriors will aim at controlling escalation by generating irrational responses. • In future conflicts, bridging of physical and societal terrains through use of information technology will allow states and non-state actors to use all possible methods to destabilize an existing order. Hybrid Wars in Recent History. Hezbollah can be termed as the first model of hybrid force (2006 Lebanon War) against Israeli Defence Force. It proved to be disciplined, professionally trained, and able to operate in distributed cells throughout all types of terrain. Emerging Global Trends. It will now be correct to look at emerging global trends to decide on the reasons and context in which future wars will be fought:- • Perhaps the most dangerous trend is the growing unilateralism in international affairs to impose their kind of order by coalition of willing. • Advancement of Globalization and Technology, have inadvertently provided the means to export terror and extremism around the world 32 . • In addition to radicalism, looming population trends warn of a growing instability in several less-developed countries due to demand – supply mismatch 33 . • Safe havens in nation-states will provide sanctuaries thus further complicating the issues besides increasing problems for weaker nation states. • Competition over resources coupled with climate change and natural disasters is also fuelling the potential for conflict. • Proliferation or increased access to all forms of WMD might result into sanctioning preemptive or even preventive military operations. • Violent extremist groups and their ideology also present a global challenge 34 . • Weak and failing states also threaten global security 35 . Conclusions from the Study Nature of war essentially remains constant, while character of warfare is evolving towards more synergy thus resulting into more dispersion and lethality. Changes in generations of warfare are overlapping as each developed over the conflicts that preceded it and as a result of changes in society rather than technology alone. Clausewitzian trinity still remains applicable as any violence without a political cause is simple criminality. The more lethal mistake is in treating all ongoing sub-conventional conflicts as fundamental extremism or only terrorism thus resulting into a vortex of senseless violence bordering on madness. Conflict remains part of the human nature. Even though tug of war will continue over control of scarce resources, probability of conventional state on state conflict except in complete asymmetric conditions remains low. Proxies will remain rational choice in immediate future and will be either sponsored by states for political reasons or will be waged by independent non-state actors for both political and apolitical reasons. Media and IGOs would be used to legalize these proxies under the garb of R2P by coalition of the willing for extracting economic or political concessions. Future wars are likely to be primarily Hybrid or Sub conventional wars with transnational character and as people become objects, employment of militaries in political conflicts will always remain questionable, at least initially. Increasing technological gap between west and rest of the world will force future warriors who will be super empowered individuals to transform into loosely knit small groups not following any rigid OPINION Vol.1 No.1 134 June 2013
hierarchical organizations. Technology will help in integration of these groups besides improving upon their operational fusion. Open source warriors represent the most dangerous trend and their financing by rival opportunistic states might make them even more lethal. Control over WMD technologies will remain a cherished dream for future warriors. Narratives will thus become more important than weapons for changing loyalties within the states. Increased awareness on part of nation states coupled with promulgation of laws and better implementation measures in tackling with fourth generation warriors might result in morphing of future warriors into societies like Hamas and Hezbollah besides reducing their liberty of action. The future warriors are also likely to adopt non-hierarchical network structures with no rigid organization, working on the concept nizam, la tanzim (system, not organization). This phrase actually encapsulates character of future war. Failure of LTTE in Sri Lanka while overly depending on development of 2nd / 3rd generational structure is a lesson which will guide the path of future insurgent organizations. Even though nation states seem to be in retreat but it is also visible that they have reconciled with the changing environment. We now today are living in an era of shared sovereignty in which all kinds of non-state actors whether violent or non-violent are asserting to share state’s powers. Trend suggests developing of regional instead of global alliances. RECOMMENDATIONS Developing International Environment and Implications on Nation States In the light of waning US influence, economic problems of Euro zone and emerging centers of a multi-polar world, a world with G – zero needs to be foreseen. As a result, many regional powers might emerge and world as a consequence might turn out to be a more chaotic place with many more wars. Fighting wars through proxies armed with better weapons and tactics coupled with traditional wars is thus considered possible. Future armies will thus have to be ready to fight both traditional and non-traditional wars within a theatre at one time. This might call for a better adaptive army conversant in both forms of the war with almost equal prowess. Recommendations at National Level Clear Strategic Direction to Prevent and Fight the Future Wars. Effective governance with responsive state administration and management systems including strategic intelligence capability remains central in deterring the future conflicts through statecraft. Needless to say a clear strategic direction manifested through strategic framework of Deterrence, Development and Dialogue should be followed as cornerstone policy to prevent the conflict in the first place. Political Ownership of the Conflict. Political government has to take over ownership of the conflicts as these cannot be managed without adopting a whole of the nation approach. Creating trinity of people, government and armed forces will remain critical in fighting future conflicts and is not possible without ownership of the political government. Creating Enabling Environment for Developing Fully Empowered Societies. Under developed feudal – tribal societies with poor socio – economic conditions and weak state controls remain prone to future insurgent wars. Only the empowered societies which are adequately educated can effectively challenge the narrative of future warriors. Devolution of governmental powers to people no longer remains an option but has become a necessity. Revamping Legal Systems to Fight 4 th Generation Wars. Terrorism uses freedom and openness provided by a free society, against it. The only answer lies in the effective and vibrant constitutional reforms especially in laws of evidence and managing witness protection programmes etc. besides enacting and implementing cybercrime laws and laws for effective management of media. Inter – Agency Cooperation. Extremism cannot be eliminated through local action against extremist pockets; the requirement is to address the root causes. If ‘will’ or ‘attitudes’ of the people is to be transformed then actions and reactions of the all elements of national power will have to be OPINION Vol.1 No.1 135 June 2013
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O P I N I O N VOL.1, NO.1 JUNE 2013
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MESSAGE OF PATRON The depth of know
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Part-1 Global / R
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Introduction SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA
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Hydropower Resources. Tajikistan is
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post-Arab Spring transition in the
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Opportunities • Russian aspiratio
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Infrastructural Development It
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Introduction AL QAEDA AND THE MUSLI
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Attacks in mainland USA - 09 Sep 20
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of peace negotiations, saying that
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Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan. Aft
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Reactive Strategy against Al Qaeda.
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Deportation / Repatriation of Illeg
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COERCIVE STATECRAFT "The most compl
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US Coercion of USSR - Cuban Missile
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Indian Coercion of Pakistan - Opera
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• Determine the punishment regime
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other states, or produce counter na
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Introduction RISING INDIA - A CRITI
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protecting Indian investments overs
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India’s Military. Indian military
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India has neither been able to prod
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In an idealistic scenario, where In
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Introduction RISING POWERS AND GLOB
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come to dominate the 21 st century
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In the face of the growing importan
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Better Security Hope in Sight Prosp
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power in central and provincial gov
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Introduction ARAB UPRISING - A CRIT
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Abd-al-Rab Mansur Al Hadi assumed p
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the region of Northwest Africa, wes
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Transparency International report f
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leading to the best case scenario.
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Recommended Areas for Immediate Att
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PART - 2 National Security ‣ Glob
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the establishment of the Bretton Wo
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Globalization and Poverty Alleviati
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years and yet an air of distrust st
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can cause capital flight, which is
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Imperatives for Reaping the Benefit
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Conclusion of other hostile element
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58 TasneemNoorani, “MFN Status an
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Elections 2014 Joint appeal to the
Page 89 and 90: Tranche 1: began transition in July
Page 91 and 92: PART- IV FUTURE AFGHAN SCENARIOS AN
Page 93 and 94: Indian and Chinese involvement in d
Page 95 and 96: influence and eastern and southern
Page 97 and 98: scenario would have grave implicati
Page 99 and 100: In present day Asia, three big demo
Page 101 and 102: Major Conclusions. Major conclusion
Page 103 and 104: The increase in glacial melting may
Page 105 and 106: Demography. Unplanned expansion of
Page 107 and 108: Legislate to ensure energy efficien
Page 109 and 110: 26 http://www.pmd.gov.pk/rnd/rnd_fi
Page 111 and 112: INDO - PAK CONFLICTS; 1998 TO DATE
Page 113 and 114: During the conflict, leaders/offici
Page 115 and 116: Pakistan, India, without any formal
Page 117 and 118: or the establishment of stability a
Page 119 and 120: Researchers: Supervisor: Brig Asim
Page 121 and 122: The Stone Age of Campaigning. Durin
Page 123 and 124: Technological Advancements - WW 1 F
Page 125 and 126: American Operational Art - WW II O
Page 127 and 128: war began. By early 1951, the fight
Page 129 and 130: • Freedom of Action for Afghan Fi
Page 131 and 132: WW-2 • Joint Warfare. • Amphibi
Page 133 and 134: 35 Antulio J. Echevarria II, “Ame
Page 135 and 136: are not necessarily new. The four e
Page 137 and 138: Fifth Generation Warfare Theoretica
Page 139: • Terrorists now have transnation
Page 143 and 144: Conclusion Force Multipliers. Avail
Page 145 and 146: PART - 4 VIEWS ‣ Human Security O
Page 147 and 148: Commission for Human Security, co c
Page 149: 3 P.H. Liotta and Taylor Owen, “W
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OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

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