OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

Introduction
RISING POWERS AND GLOBAL BALANCE OF POWER
“The inevitable never happens. It is the unexpected always”
Lord Keynes
No one can forecast the future with certainty, though immediate future can be predicted with
relative correctness based on contemporary realities, tendencies, drivers and trends. The cold war has
ended. The US no longer faces the constant threat of aggression from its erstwhile adversary, the former
USSR. Did someone ever forecast the demise of USSR, US emerging as the sole super power or the attack
on the Twin Towers Throughout history we can see the “Balance of Power Concept” in action. The
clearest example of the balance of power concept can be found in the Cold War wherein two superpowers,
the US and the USSR, held world balance between them. Both states sought to deter domination by the
other through arms build up and the creation of strong systems of alliances.
In the contemporary world, power is distributed in a complex manner. Militarily the world is
largely uni-polar; economically it is multi-polar, while in the third tier we find the transnational relations
that goes beyond the borders and also outside the government control. Sequel to the Cold War, the United
States emerged as the sole super power in the world. No single state acted as effective counterweight to the
US. However, some shifts have been witnessed recently due to globalization, market forces and operation
of non state actors without regard for national boundaries and loyalties.
Prehistoric and Medieval Periods
HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE OF BALANCE OF POWER
Irrigation systems, bureaucracies, and large armies came into existence in China (403-221 BC)
with the development of large and cohesive states. States pursued their interests through alliances. In
Greece as well, during the Peloponnesian Wars (431-404 BC), the hegemony of Athens triggered the
formation of city-states’ coalition that felt threatened by Athenian power.
Pre World Wars Period
During the Thirty Years’ War (1618-1648), Sweden, England, France, and The Netherlands
formed an alliance and defeated the leaders of the Habsburg Empire. In 1815, France was beaten by a
broad nexus of European states including Britain, Russia, Austria, and Prussia. A broad coalition called
‘the concert of Europe’ emerged and balanced the power in the continent of Europe. This alliance between
Russia, Britain, France Prussia and Austria maintained balance of power in a manner that no state was able
to dominate the other.
Inter and Intra World Wars Period (1914-1945)
At the outbreak of First World War, all states made endeavours to ensure that balance of power
remains intact, however due to irresponsible behaviour of some kings and princes and that of their states,
the efforts could not be realized. German rulers floated the idea that her neighbours were harbouring evil
designs and thus the sovereignty of Germany was being challenged. On the other hand, the neighbours
were of the view that Germany was becoming very powerful and their ideals in the continent were at risk.
Therefore a strong and formidable alliance was constituted in Europe. Threat from Germany was so grave
that even USA parted ways with its concept of neutrality and joined the European Alliance. Almost a
similar environment was experienced before World War II.
Cold War Period
USA and the USSR entered in a direct confrontation mode however nuclear weapons prevented
both from entering into an armed conflict. This state of strategic parity gave birth to cold war. This parity
evolved with passage of time in a manner that both sides exercised strategic restraint to the extent that even
a signal would be avoided which could trigger a nuclear war between the two and thus the balance of
power was maintained. The environment started changing with the collapse of the USSR.
Post Cold War
This period saw the demise of USSR and America USA surfaced as the only super power which
had the capacity, capability and resolve to project and demonstrate power in any part of the world. Such
OPINION Vol.1 No.1 43 June 2013