OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

• There have been significant political changes since the end of World War II and number of
states has increased from 51 in 1945 to 194 now with theoretically same importance in
international system.
• Rise in the number of stateless actors to include both transnational and sub-national
elements that influence the international scene is another change which is eroding state
sovereignty.
• As the inter-state wars receded due to their global unacceptability and economic costs,
states and non-state actors resorted to low intensity conflicts to further their political aims.
• 4GW theorists’ also visualised contemporary terrorist groups as self-sufficient since
conflicts will be waged outside the nation-state framework. However, as we have already
seen in Swat and FATA, that is hardly the case as while the State of Pakistan was fighting
these groups, they were also being supported by few states, states thus remain relevant in
fighting or supporting these groups.
• In nutshell, the “end of nation state” approach is too deterministic giving an impression
that it is an inescapable process.
Weak Understanding of Clausewitzian Trinity. One more addition was made by declaring this
war as non-Trinitarian by viewing the trinity as loose interface among the government, military
and the people while ignoring the trinity of basic hostility (drives the desire for conflict), chance
and uncertainty or non-rationality (makes war unpredictable and resistant to prescriptive solutions),
and the purpose (element of subordination or rationality) 6 . Going over the history of disturbances
in Swat and FATA, Tehreek-e-Nifaz-e-Sharia Muhammadi (TNSM) was supported by people in
1994 and was thus able to create some sort of trinity. But as government promises remained
unfulfilled, basic hostility increased and TNSM decided to include TTP Swat Chapter as its armed
group. Inclusion of TTS gave birth to chance and friction and this friction widened as TTS misused
its power thus resulting into loss of support and breaking trinity. Trinity thus remains central to
war fighting and till the time State of Pakistan failed in establishing trinity of people, armed forces
and government no worthwhile operations were possible.
Use of Transnational Bases. Super-terrorists of the future were also thought not to have a
“traditional” national base or identity, but rather a “non-national or transnational one, such as an
ideology or a religion” 7 . However, historically, this has also been a norm rather than exception 8 .
Indeed, it characterizes many sub conventional conflicts now in Pakistan and Afghanistan where
religion was and is still being used to hide the actual agenda. Although, we may disagree with the
final end state these groups desire or long for.
Attacking the Will of Enemy. Attacking the will of the enemy was cited as the main objective of
the changing character of war. Incidentally, this has also been a standard norm in the history and
the only difference now is that through access to media and communication means, certain
leverage to their adversary’s political will is being enjoyed by states and non states 9 . Attacks in
urban areas of Pakistan by TTP, Al Qaeda and all other host of affiliates of Al Qaeda were aimed
at attacking the will of the government and people of Pakistan while attacks on LEAs were aimed
at breaking their will. Debates still resonate in the media where government and armed forces are
routinely asked to negotiate and reconcile with these groups after each attack.
Implosion Rather than Integration. Implosion of state was also identified as one the objectives
while not realizing that states still remain important to all terrorist organizations as they wield
power over societies within states. Even though initially subversion of an existing order is
anticipated, ultimately integration is sought even by insurgents. Post-1996 Afghanistan after
Taliban take over stands as a stark example. Implosion followed by integration was also tried in
Swat and SWA but failed when TTS and TTP failed to manage the chaos. Hamas and Hezbollah
are two more interesting examples as they are now part of the very societies they wish to control 10 .
Over Emphasizing Use of Technology. Technologies such as directed energy weapons and
robotics were envisioned to be used by future terrorists. Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistani
groups inside Pakistan fought with most basic of the weapons and almost no technology.
Vietcongs in Vietnam and Afghans in 80s fought with even more primitive weapons but were still
able to dissuade the designs of much larger and better equipped 2 nd and 3 rd generation armies.
OPINION Vol.1 No.1 130 June 2013