OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

Reasons for War
So if war and conflict is eternal to human beings, in order to comprehend the future wars, it is
important to understand why nations and societies go to war. States and non-states go to war 14 for:-
States. Fear, honour and interests; policy (Politik): cost/benefit calculations and failure of
diplomacy depending on the criticality of issue.
Non-States (and sometimes States)
• Grievances, objectives, glory of individuals/status in tribe.
• Obtaining the spoils of war: booty, slaves, territory, women, which override and
complicate any pursuit of tribal/community “policy”.
• Obtaining prisoners for religious or culinary reasons.
• Doctrinal differences.
• Other “will of God” reasons.
• Justice: avenge perceived wrongs; community honor (e.g. Trojan War).
• Assist an ally (WW I and to some extent WWII).
Everybody. Existence, either as a group (insurgency) or as a state.
Probability of Conventional Wars
Off late probability of conventional wars has decreased in countries and societies 15 which are more
integrated with global systems as a result of factors like complex interdependence, non-affordability of
economic costs of a war, advent of nuclear weapons and argument that results necessary to succeed in
current or future conflicts have not been achieved throughout history by use of force alone. But since
expression of interests remains important to states and societies especially when stakes are high, states and
non-states are increasingly engaging in proxies. It is also considered that as unipolar world gives in to a
multipolar world, interstate wars could return 16 .
Reasons for Future Wars
Future wars in the framework of 4GW could still be fought for pure political reasons, like the wars
in medieval Europe 17 or classic insurgencies or primarily for economic reasons 18 . But since proxies will
gain prominence and as these are fought for political, social and strategic contexts instead of military
technology, efficacy of military solutions will continue to be questioned.
Future Warriors
Future fourth generation warriors will be super empowered individuals able to fight
independently 19 in small groups. These warriors will not only understand the tactical, operational and
strategic aspects very well but will also have improved understanding of social contexts 20 as we are already
observing in the case of many banned organizations in Pakistan.
Understanding Changing Character of Insurgencies
Difference between Terrorism and Insurgency. 4GW is also called an evolved form of
insurgency and as future wars will focus around proxies which can take shape of either
insurgencies or terrorism, it is important to understand difference between terrorism and
insurgency to develop matching responses. Appropriate responses to the two phenomena are very
different:-
• The difference lies in organization and use of terror as insurgencies combine political
agendas with violence while terrorists may pursue any higher goals, but in this case violence
substitutes rather than complements the declared objectives 21 .
• In today’s world, counter insurgent represents radical change, as insurgent after controlling a
certain segment of society fights to preserve the status quo. Pakistan’s campaign in
Waziristan and Swat did exactly the same.
• Insurgencies are characterized by large overt organizations while terrorist organizations are
characterized by smaller overt groups or networks.
OPINION Vol.1 No.1 132 June 2013