OPINION Vol.1, No.1 June 2013 - National Defence University

India’s Military. Indian military is in the process of modernization and creating force structures
that are capable of undertaking network-centric warfare on land, at sea, and in the air. Gradually, but
perceptibly, the Indians are upgrading their capabilities, enhancing their kinetic effectiveness and
command and control, and improving interoperability. Indian army is preparing to join the navy and
the air force in launching intervention operations in India’s area of strategic interest. 25 Indian
ambitious Maritime Capabilities Perspective Plan seeks to dominate the Indian Ocean region by
acquiring blue and brown water operational capability 26 while effectively countering current and
emerging threats closer to the coastline. Besides, India’s traditional strategic sphere lay between the
Gulf of Aden and the Strait of Malacca; but with Indian’s global footprint expanding, the Indian Air
Force is preparing to be ready to serve wherever the country’s future strategic interests lie. Indian
claim to a world-power status has been greatly facilitated by acquiring nuclear capability having de
facto approval of the West.
Analysis of Indian Status as a Rising Power
Despite a spectacular growth story, since 2011, India’s growth started slackening. Its national
deficit is growing, and inflation is rising after having fallen between early 2010 and early 2012. Indian
plans to build a more inclusive nation are in disarray. Income inequality has risen besides accentuating
social inequities amongst various segments of society. Access to basic services, such as water, health care,
and sanitation, remains woefully inadequate. Meanwhile, the country’s democracy putters along, but in the
absence of a dynamic leadership, policymaking has come to a halt, few term it as a policy paralysis. That is
the reason that Rising India preposition seems to have gone from a near-sure thing to, a 50-50 bet 27 .
Interestingly, there are more skeptics in India than abroad, about the myth of India’s leap forward to
development. Some of them have reservations about the mode of change while others dispute the projected
outcome of reforms. Quite a few critics, in particular left-leaning analysts, are prone to seeing India’s
passage to development as an overblown success story 28 . Indian predicament and fault lines posing
obstacle to the global status of India are discussed in succeeding lines.
Political Front
Plight of Coalition Government. Getting the liberalized reforms’ agenda through the political
elite remains a bigger challenge than to craft and implement them. As Mr Manmohan Singh said in
March 2012, “The difficult decisions we have to make, are made even more difficult because we
are a coalition government.” That means, he continued, that “we have to formulate policy with
the need to maintain consensus” 29 which otherwise remains a daunting challenge in the purview of
respective vested interests.
Lack of Federal Approach on Foreign Policy 30 Interesting fact remains that people in the Indian
states don’t care about global issues while Foreign policy is reckoned as headache for the center
alone. Tamil Nadu looks to Far East and especially to Sri Lanka; and cares about the global
technology revolution. Mumbai watches and weighs on the Straits of Hormuz and piracy off the
west coast of Africa. Gujrat cares about Middle East oil, and joins Jammu and Kashmir in a
persistent focus on Pakistan.
Relations with Immediate Neighbours. “India is a big county with a small heart” 31 . India has
always been suspicious of most of its neighbours, like Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives, Myanmar,
Bangladesh and Pakistan, for helping powers inimical to India and for aiding insurgencies with in
India. It should be interesting to note that farther East in the region, India has started actualizing the
benefits of her ‘Look East’ policy in the shape of closer relations with ASEAN countries. Farther
West, India is investing and engaging pro-actively with CARs in order to become a relevant player
in ‘New Great Game’, but has not been able to do so in its immediate neighbourhood in true
Chankyan tradition. India’s inability to come to terms with neighbours is likely to impede her
ambitions in the long run.
Economic Front
Recent growth especially in 2011/12 is not only poor but also one of the lowest in the last 9 years 32 .
This phenomenon has resulted due to serious deficiencies in terms of infrastructure shortages, large fiscal
deficit, high inflation, restrictive labour regulations, poorly reformed financial sector and overall energy
shortages. Indian currency has devalued by 20.7% since last one year while Indian Rupee exchange rate
against USD declined from INR 35 to 58 33 , and the trend continues. Tax to GDP ratio stood at 11.7%,
OPINION Vol.1 No.1 37 June 2013