Report - United States Department of Defense

UNCLASSIFIED
Afghan-Tajik oil tender. The Afghan-Tajik basin is estimated to contain 946 million barrels of
oil, 7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 85 million barrels of natural gas liquids. This tender is
expected to be awarded in spring 2013.
Trade and Exports
Increased trade and regional economic integration will be important for sustaining Afghanistan’s
economic development beyond 2014. Over the last decade, Afghanistan has persistently run a
large current-account deficit (about 40 percent of GDP) that has been offset by external funding.
Afghanistan remains in a significant trade deficit position; exports remain roughly one-tenth the
size of imports. The IMF expected that the Afghan current account would be in deficit, at 1.1
percent of GDP, in FY2012. This represents a decline from the current account surplus of 1.7
percent of GDP in 2010, and a slight deficit of 0.01 percent of GDP for 2011. Prospects for
increased exports of traditional goods like carpets and dried fruit are only likely to be realized
with greater facilitation of transit trade with its regional partners. Potential future export of
petroleum, natural gas, and extractives are important for offsetting the deficit; however, progress
in the near term will be limited as Afghanistan continues to build its capacity to monetize its
natural resources.
Afghanistan has focused on rehabilitating and building new cross-border transportation facilities
to connect with Central Asian countries, better harmonize border systems, and bring into line
trade agreements with regional standards to take advantage of improved security. The Five Year
Plan for improving and expanding custom facilities and practices at major border crossings for
some $200M is at a mid-point. This expansion should facilitate trade, expand throughput, and
encourage travel/transit through Afghanistan to other locations. Increased security at border
portals and new equipment will produce an overall positive effect for trade.
At this time, Pakistan remains the single largest trading partner and most convenient source of
goods and transit routes to markets for Afghanistan. However, strained political relations have
limited the potential of the trade partnership. Although the Afghanistan-Pakistan Trade and
Transit Agreement (APTTA), signed in 2011, was a hopeful restart of the bilateral trade
relationship, there have been recent clashes, with each side imposing difficult procedures and
holding trucks at the border in recent months. USAID’s trade programs in Afghanistan and
Pakistan have been working with both governments to overcome technical, administrative, and
legal issues. Nevertheless, this relationship will require a greater deal of commitment and
discussion by both countries.
Information Communication Technology
The information and communications technology (ICT) sector has been the most successful
sector of the Afghan economy and the largest contributor to GIRoA treasury other than donor
funds. The ICT sector employs more than 100,000 Afghans and pays some of the highest wages
in the country. This sector has accounted for nearly $2B in private investment to date. Presently,
there are 19.8M mobile phone subscribers, and 88 percent of Afghans live in areas with cell
phone service.
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