Report - United States Department of Defense

UNCLASSIFIED
1.11: LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT 6 MONTHS
Over the next six months, the ANSF will continue to be the backbone of long-term security and
stability for Afghanistan. The ANSF will take the lead for security nationwide, confronting the
insurgency while setting conditions for completion of transition through continued coordination
with coalition forces and the international community.
The nature and focus of the ISAF campaign will steadily evolve. ISAF will maintain campaign
momentum as it shifts to a role in support of the ANSF, all the while transferring non-security
functions, redeploying forces, closing and aligning bases, and evolving the command and control
structure for the NATO-led, post-2014 mission. ISAF will continue to support the ANSF
through seasonal shaping operations, employing all available military and interagency resources
to maintain pressure on the insurgency.
The ANSF will be tested this fighting season. While insurgent capability and territory have been
significantly degraded during the past two years, the insurgency remains a potent force. The
insurgency’s sanctuaries in Pakistan, corruption, and the limited capacity of the Afghan
government at the local level will remain the biggest risks to turning security gains into a durable
and sustainable Afghanistan. Despite ISAF’s shift to a TAA mission, it retains significant
combat power and will assist the ANSF as needed.
Milestone 2013 marked the shift of the ISAF mission from a leading combat role to a supporting
role in Afghan-led operations, with the ANSF in the lead for security at the operational level.
ISAF will, however, retain operational and tactical command of all ISAF forces in Afghanistan
through the end of 2014. Milestone 2013 was announced on June 18, 2013, as was the
announcement of tranche five of the transition process. Tranche five—the final group of Afghan
districts to enter into the transition of lead security authority—will be implemented in late
summer, subject to GIRoA and NATO approval. In the remaining months of the transition
process following Milestone 2013, ISAF trainers and advisors will continue to work closely with
their Afghan counterparts to close gaps in ANSF capability.
This milestone also occured alongside ISAF’s focusing SFA at higher levels of command. By
November 2013, most SFA will be focused at the Afghan brigade and provincial levels and
above. This will enable the ANSF to exercise greater autonomy and leadership of security
operations, while still having access to ISAF assistance when required. This concept is in line
with the President Obama’s statement related to pulling patrols back from villages. SFABs will
be focused on developing the capability to conduct higher-level planning and execution of
operations, as well as the capability of the Afghans to support and enable those operations.
1.12: ELECTION PREPARATION
The presidential election in 2014 promises to be the first constitutional transfer of power in
Afghanistan’s history, and for the first time, Afghans will be solely responsible for administering
the process and providing security. A credible process with the fullest possible voter
participation is critical to future stability, as well as to sustaining international assistance. The
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