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Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations<br />

Credit Losses. The chart below details annual trends in charge-offs (credit losses, net of recoveries), loss-toreceivables<br />

("LTR") ratios (charge-offs divided by the average amount of receivables outstanding, excluding the reserve<br />

and unearned interest supplements related to finance receivables), credit loss reserve, and credit loss reserve as a<br />

percentage of end-of-period ("EOP") receivables:<br />

Ford Credit's charge-offs are down from 2010 levels, primarily reflecting lower repossessions in the United States and<br />

lower losses in Europe, offset partially by lower recoveries in the United States. The loss-to-receivables ratio is almost<br />

50% lower than 2010, and is the lowest Ford Credit has seen in the last decade.<br />

Reserves and reserves as a percentage of EOP receivables both are lower than a year ago, reflecting the decrease in<br />

charge-offs. The allowance for credit losses is estimated using a combination of models and management judgment, and<br />

is based on such factors as portfolio quality, historical loss performance, and receivable levels.<br />

In purchasing retail finance and lease contracts, Ford Credit uses a proprietary scoring system that classifies<br />

contracts using several factors, such as credit bureau information, credit bureau scores (e.g., FICO score), customer<br />

characteristics, and contract characteristics. In addition to Ford Credit's proprietary scoring system, it considers other<br />

factors, such as employment history, financial stability, and capacity to pay. At December 31, 2011 and 2010, Ford Credit<br />

classified between 5% - 6% of its outstanding U.S. retail finance and lease contracts in its portfolio as high risk at contract<br />

inception.<br />

Residual Risk. Ford Credit is exposed to residual risk on operating leases and similar balloon payment products<br />

where the customer may return the financed vehicle to Ford Credit. Residual risk is the possibility that the amount Ford<br />

Credit obtains from returned vehicles will be less than its estimate of the expected residual value for the vehicle. Ford<br />

Credit estimates the expected residual value by evaluating recent auction values, return volumes for its leased vehicles,<br />

industry-wide used vehicle prices, marketing incentive plans, and vehicle quality data. For additional discussion, see<br />

"Critical Accounting Estimates - Accumulated Depreciation on Vehicles Subject to Operating Leases" below.<br />

North America Retail Operating Lease Experience<br />

Ford Credit uses various statistics to monitor its residual risk:<br />

• Placement volume measures the number of leases Ford Credit purchases in a given period;<br />

• Termination volume measures the number of vehicles for which the lease has ended in the given period; and<br />

• Return volume reflects the number of vehicles returned to Ford Credit by customers at lease-end.<br />

52 Ford Motor Company | 2011 Annual Report

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