evaluation of the european strategy on safety and health at work ...

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EVALUATION OF THE EUROPEAN STRATEGY ON SAFETY AND HEALTH AT WORK 2007-2012157… andunemploymentremains high …While <strong>the</strong>re were a few signs <strong>of</strong> recovery in 2010 mainly caused by exceptionalstimulus measures, <strong>the</strong> debt crisis has since got a foothold, in particular in sou<strong>the</strong>rnEurope and, according to Eurostat 174 in February 2012 unemployment rose for <strong>the</strong>tenth consecutive month, reaching an EU-27 average level <strong>of</strong> 10.2% - its highestlevel for 14 years. The 17-nation Euro area reached an even higher averageunemployment rate <strong>of</strong> 10.8%. In absolute number this means that 24.5 millionwomen and men in EU-27 were unemployed in February 2012 - an increase <strong>of</strong>167,000 people compared to <strong>the</strong> previous month.Among <strong>the</strong> EU Member States, <strong>the</strong> lowest unemployment rates were recorded inAustria (4.2%), <strong>the</strong> Ne<strong>the</strong>rlands (4.9%), Luxembourg (5.2%) and Germany (5.7%),with <strong>the</strong> highest in Spain (23.6%) and Greece (21.0% in December 2011).Compared to a year ago, <strong>the</strong> unemployment rate fell in eight EU Member States,increased in eighteen and remained stable in Romania.… in particular for<strong>the</strong> young menUnemployment has in particular hit young men (15-24 years), reaching an EU-27average level <strong>of</strong> 23.1% in February 2012 - almost 2 percentage points higher than<strong>the</strong> year before. Young women reached an unemployment rate <strong>of</strong> 21.5% - anincrease <strong>of</strong> around 1 percentage point. The comparable unemployment rates for 25-75 year olds were much lower at 8.7% for men and 8.8% for women.Spain and Greece distinguish <strong>the</strong>mselves in an unfortunate way regarding <strong>the</strong> youthunemployment problem. In February 2012, Spain has rates for young men andwomen reaching 52.8% and 47.9%, respectively while <strong>the</strong> most recent data forGreece (December 2011) show rates <strong>of</strong> 43.4% and 58.2%.Industrial productionhas stabilized …… but employmentgrowth has beensluggishThe prospect for a return to employment growth is still uncertain, although byFebruary 2012 industrial production in <strong>the</strong> EU-27 is back to its 2005 level. Whileindustrial production fell significantly in <strong>the</strong> early years <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> financial andeconomic crisis, a fairly strong recovery has been felt in <strong>the</strong> last two years, but witha somewhat slow development in recent months. Industrial production dropped by1.8% in February 2012 compared to February 2011 in both EU-27 and <strong>the</strong> Euroarea. In contrast, business confidence improved slightly in January 2012, after ashort period <strong>of</strong> decline in <strong>the</strong> second half <strong>of</strong> 2011 and remains close to its longtermaverage. In particular uncertainties about <strong>the</strong> resolution <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Euro area debtcrisis have negatively affected investment, whilst firms have trimmed output toavoid inventory accumulation.The OECD 175 also emphasizes that employment growth has been sluggish, and that<strong>the</strong>re still is a need to promote job rich growth. It indicates that one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> mostworrying features <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> present situation is <strong>the</strong> steep rise in <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong> peoplewho have been unemployed for a year or more. The OECD 176 does, however,expect firmer economic growth through <strong>the</strong> first part <strong>of</strong> 2012. Recent positive174 Eurostat, Statistics Database.175 OECD Employment Outlook 2011.176 OECD, What is <strong>the</strong> economic outlook for OECD countries - An interim assessment, 29March 2012.http://projects.cowiportal.com/ps/A019055/Documents/3 Project documents/Interim and final report/Final report October 2012/OSH <strong>evaluation</strong>-report_Final_submitted 14 March2013.docx
158 EVALUATION OF THE EUREVALUATION OF THE EUROPEAN STRATEGY ON SAFETY AND HEALTH AT WORK 2007-2012158indicators suggest, for example, that activity in Germany might accelerate, whilethat <strong>of</strong> France is projected to be broadly flat. In contrast, Italian industrialproduction is weak and this suggests a recession for <strong>the</strong>m for <strong>the</strong> first two quarters<strong>of</strong> 2012.The crisis is puttingextra strain onoccupational healthand safety …The Pan-European opinion poll on occupational safety and health 177 , carried out in<strong>the</strong> period October 2011 to January 2012, reveals that <strong>the</strong> economic crisis inEurope, and <strong>the</strong> changing world <strong>of</strong> work, is putting extra strain on <strong>the</strong> occupationalhealth and safety <strong>of</strong> European workers. Job-related stress is highlighted as a newand emerging risk, with eight out <strong>of</strong> ten <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> general public across Europethinking that <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong> people who will suffer from stress over <strong>the</strong> next fiveyears will increase - with around half expecting it to 'increase a lot'.Bleak short-termeconomic outlook …… and still someway to reach <strong>the</strong>Europe 2020employment ratetarget ...6.1.1 OutlookThe short-term outlook for <strong>the</strong> EU economy is also bleak, with only a slowrecovery forecast by <strong>the</strong> European Commission 178 from <strong>the</strong> second half <strong>of</strong> 2012,although ga<strong>the</strong>ring some speed in 2013. Hence, while GDP is projected to stagnatein <strong>the</strong> EU this year, it is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2013. However, this forecastassumes that <strong>the</strong> steps taken by <strong>the</strong> EU to tackle <strong>the</strong> debt crisis have helped to easefinancial market tensions. It also assumes that investors and consumers regain ameasure <strong>of</strong> confidence.It is obviously difficult to predict <strong>the</strong> future, but Figure 6-1 shows that <strong>the</strong> growthmomentum <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> EU economy needs to be restored for <strong>the</strong> Europe 2020employment rate target <strong>of</strong> 75% (average for <strong>the</strong> 27 EU Member States) to bereached.It is envisaged in Europe 2020 that its targets will reached if it is <strong>the</strong> subject <strong>of</strong> adetermined and focused effort at both <strong>the</strong> EU and national levels. Hence, only ifefforts are combined and coordinated will <strong>the</strong>y have <strong>the</strong> desired impact on growthand jobs. There is <strong>of</strong> course a risk that <strong>the</strong> targets will not be reached but will leave<strong>the</strong> labour market in need for and uncertainty regarding fur<strong>the</strong>r changes that alsomight affect working conditions.177 European Agency for Safety and Health at Work, Pan-European opinion poll onoccupational safety and health, conducted by Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute(October 2011 - January 2012).178 European Commission, European Economic Forecast, Spring 2012,http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/<strong>european</strong>_economy/2012/pdf/ee-2012-1_en.pdfhttp://projects.cowiportal.com/ps/A019055/Documents/3 Project documents/Interim and final report/Final report October 2012/OSH <strong>evaluation</strong>report_Final_submitted14 March 2013.docx
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