PDF: 2962 pages, 5.2 MB - Bay Area Council Economic Institute

Global Reach
• The number of cars on India’s roads will grow from 5.7 million o 20 million.
• Commercial energy consumption will rise from 376 million to 812 million tons of
oil equivalent.
A 2006 study by the Government of India Planning Commission, meanwhile, says that to meet
demand growth, power generation capacity will need to increase five-fold, from a 2003–04
baseline of 160,000 megawatts to 800,000 megawatts in 2031–32. The International Energy
Agency estimates that India will need to invest $1.25 trillion in energy infrastructure—75% of
that in power generation—through 2030. That would translate into more than a tripling of capacity,
most of it coal-fired, adding at least 400,000 megawatts—equal to the combined capacity
of Japan, Korea and Australia today.
It should be noted that two-thirds of Indian households—668 million people—are not even on
the commercial energy grid and are not counted in these consumption forecast figures. An estimated
400 million Indians have no access to electricity service at all. These households derive
energy from “traditional” sources such as wood, dung, biogas, and crop waste.
Per capita energy consumption in India is low—439 kilograms of oil equivalent (kgoe) in 2003,
versus 1,090 kgoe in China, a world average of 1,688 kgoe, and 7,835 kgoe in the U.S. Similarly,
electricity consumption in India is only 553 kilowatt-hours (kWh), compared to 1,379 kWh for
China, 13,066 kWh for the U.S., and a world average of 2,429 kWh.
India had a single Ministry of Energy until 1992, when it was broken into distinct ministries
of Coal, Petroleum and Natural Gas, New and Renewable Energy, and Power. The Planning
Commission and Department of Atomic Energy also contribute to energy policy. Lack of
integration among these agencies has constrained energy infrastructure development.
Coal
India has sizable domestic coal reserves—7% of total global supply—and coal provides 54% of
the country’s total energy consumption and 56% of its electricity. About 78% of domestic coal
production is allocated to power generation, with the remainder used primarily in steel and cement
production. Despite these large reserves, India’s coal imports are rising as a result of underinvestment,
poor technology, and inadequate infrastructure.
Oil and Gas
Oil consumption accounts for 32% of India’s energy use, and demand has grown six-fold since
the 1980s, primarily in transportation—as the trucking sector has grown and as more Indians
upgrade from bicycles to scooters to automobiles—in captive power generation for buildings
and planned towns; and in farm irrigation.
While the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas reported 2006–07 petroleum reserves of 756 million
metric tons (MMT) and crude oil consumption totaled 147 MMT, production only amounted
to 34 MMT, while imports reached 111 MMT. India imported 76% of its oil in 2006–07, up from
176