Alkoholmonopol och folkhälsa - Statens folkhälsoinstitut

14 alkoholmonopol och folkhälsa
effective with respect to age controls, even when compared to the Norwegian and Finnish
monopoly stores.
Scenario 2. All alcoholic beverages in grocery stores
The second likely scenario is to permit the sale of strong beer, wine and spirits in regular
grocery stores. The following assumptions were made for this scenario:
A large proportion of Swedish grocery stores would sell alcohol, potentially up to 8000
stores if all grocery stores were to become licensed to sell alcohol.
The overall assortment of alcoholic beverages in the average grocery store would be
extremely limited in comparison to the average Systembolaget store.
Selling hours would be the same as those for grocery stores, an expected 84 hours per
week, including Sundays.
If current Swedish alcohol taxes were retained, it is expected that average prices would
not fall. However, it is expected that grocery stores would stock discount products not
currently sold by Systembolaget, such as proprietary brands of wine and spirits of
lower quality than the cheapest wines carried by Systembolaget. It is expected that the
effect of this type of product selection would result in a drop in prices of 5 percent.
The grocery stores would subsidize the prices of selected alcohol beverages using
revenue from other products in order to draw customers into their stores. It is expected
that in-store marketing would increase consumption by 3 percent in addition to the
expected 5 percent increase from radio commercials and other advertising, resulting in
an overall increase of in total consumption of 8 percent for this scenario.
Age verification would be less effective than at Systembolaget.
General forecasting model
The research group behind this study created a computer-assisted model for the two scenarios
based on three steps. In step 1, the key variables that affect the total consumption
of alcohol were identified. In step 2, a computer-based model was constructed to estimate
the change in total consumption through: (a) the elasticity (sensitivity to change) of each
factor, (b) the estimated change in each factor for the two scenarios, (c) the proportion of
alcohol sold at Systembolaget, and (d) the possibility that sales in the privatized system
replace a part of private imports. In step 3, an estimate was made of the extent of alcoholrelated
harm that would result from the changes in consumption in Sweden.
Summary of the results
Our best estimate is that privatization of all alcohol retail in Sweden would lead to an
increase in consumption of 14 percent (approx. 1.4 litres/person) if sales were limited to
special liquor stores, or 29 percent (approx. 2.8 litres/person) if all alcoholic beverages
were sold in grocery stores. These increases would be in addition to the current total