Alkoholmonopol och folkhälsa - Statens folkhälsoinstitut

alkoholmonopol och folkhälsa 15
consumption of 9.7 litres/person. These are conservative estimations, and it is very likely
that the actual increase would be even greater. However, even these conservative estimates
entail significant consequences for public health.
Impact on alcohol-related harm
From a public health standpoint, an increase in total consumption almost always means
an increase of injuries due to alcohol. The research group chose to estimate changes in
alcohol-related mortality using two methods, neither of which provides an exact figure for
total mortality. The first method is based on attributable fractions, that is, the percentage
of mortality due to causes of death that can be attributed to alcohol. The second method
is founded on time series analysis based on the historical relationship between total consumption
and injuries over longer periods of time. Both methods yielded similar estimates
of the increase percentage of alcohol-related deaths with an increased consumption.
Because there already existed specific time-series parameters for Sweden, the research
group chose to use the times series method and to expand the list of possible outcomes.
A move to licensed private liquor stores would result in an estimated 700 more deaths,
6700 more cases of bodily assault, and 7.3 million more sick days. A move to alcohol
sales in grocery stores would lead to 1580 more deaths, 14,200 more assaults, and 16
million more sick days.
Table 1. Increase of certain alcohol injuries resulting from increased alcohol sales, estimated using
Swedish time series data.
Type of injury Special liquor stores Increase Grocery stores Increase
Deaths due explicitly to
alcohol-related disease
430 26% 1,000 61%
Fatal accidents 120 10% 250 22%
Suicides 130 14% 290 30%
Homicides 20 18% 40 40%
Total number of deaths from
specified causes
700 18% 1,580 41%
Assaults 6,700 10% 14,200 22%
Sick days 7,300,000 18% 16,100,000 40%