Niger Delta Human Development Report - UNDP Nigeria - United ...

A youthful demographic
structure means many
people remain outside of
the working age bracket
and are in their
formative years, when
social investment is
heaviest.
Although life expectancy
in the region is similar
to that in the rest of the
country, it has tended to
be lower in the more
economically deprived
communities.
exacerbate the volatile atmosphere, rather
than promoting the needed transformation.
Population and Demographic
Characteristics Population size and
density
In the 1991 census, the total population of
all nine states of the Niger Delta was 20.5
million (see table 1.2). This was made up
of 10.133 million males and 10.329 million
females. The projected total population for
2005 is 28.9 million, rising to 39.2 million
by 2015 and 45.7 million by 2020. The
states with the highest population sizes are
Rivers, Delta, Akwa Ibom and Imo. With
the possible exception of Bayelsa and Cross
River states, there are probably no
significant differences in population sizes
among the states. Differences do show up
in population densities. The overall
population density for the Niger Delta
region based on the 1991 population is 182
persons per square kilometre. But some
states have densities far above this-e.g. Abia
State (478 per square kilometre), Akwa
Ibom (354 per square kilometre), Imo (481
per square kilometre) and Rivers (307 per
square kilometre). Population distribution
within each state is uneven, particularly in
the states in the core Niger Delta, where
the fragmented, swampy landscape
constrains human settlements.
Age-sex composition
Based on the 1991 census, there is almost
an even distribution of population between
men and women in the Niger Delta region.
In some states (Abia, Akwa Ibom, Delta,
Edo and Imo), there are more females than
males (see table 1.3). This has implications
for development planning especially in a
situation where gender disparity has been
a major problem. The NDDC Regional
Master Plan, however, reports that there
are more males (54 per cent) than females
(46 per cent) in the Niger Delta region. If
this is confirmed by the 2006 National
Census, then things may have turned
around. What may not have changed is the
male domination of traditional Nigerian
society.
Available information on the age structure
of the population of states in the Niger
Delta region depicts a large segment of
young people below 30 years of age. This
group comprises 62.1 per cent of the
population of the region, compared with
35.8 per cent of adults in the 30- to 69year
age bracket. This demographic feature
has various implications for development
planning and the financing of social
services. A youthful age structure implies
that many people remain outside of the
working age bracket. In the formative
years, social investment rather than
economic investment is required. This
creates an additional dependency burden
for the average family or the economically
active population, and states in the Niger
Delta. The magnitude of such a burden
tends to be greater for impoverished
families or population units that are either
unemployed, under-employed or lack the
benefit of full employment. A
comparatively high proportion of people
below the working age also tends to reduce
labour input per capita and income per
capita.
Fertility, life expectancy and mortality
Available household survey data for 2004
put the average crude birth rate for the
Niger Delta region at 45.8 per 1,000 people.
The corresponding average natural growth
rate of 3.1 per cent per annum across the
region is, thus, higher than the rate of 2.5
per cent often used by the Government
for estimating the growth rate of rural
population in the country.
There is little empirical data on life
expectancy in the delta. But the best
national estimates, citing figures from 2000,
indicate that average life expectancy is 46.8
years. The present figure may have dropped
to about 43 years because of the economic
deprivations of the intervening years and
the cumulative impact of HIV&AIDS. It
is assumed that life expectancy in the region
is similar to that in the rest of the country.
Nevertheless, even in the best of times,
life expectancy has tended to be lower in
the more economically deprived
communities, such as those in the most
swampy and least accessible parts of the
core Niger Delta. Although hard
longitudinal data are also generally lacking
on specific maternal and infant mortality
rates, the crude death rate for the Niger
Delta region was 14.7 per 1,000 people in
2003 (CPED 2003). Low life expectancy,
of course, is also a reflection of high
mortality rates. For instance, against the life
24 NIGER DELTA HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT