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Measuring the Benefits of Intercity Passenger Rail: A Study

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Influences on Diverted and Induced Demand<br />

Tables 5-28 and 5-29 present a more detailed examination <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> patterns <strong>of</strong> passenger<br />

alternatives to <strong>the</strong> Heartland Flyer for <strong>the</strong> April and July surveys, respectively. These tables<br />

report <strong>the</strong> percentage <strong>of</strong> each alternative selected by each category <strong>of</strong> four survey items: trip<br />

purpose, age group, household vehicles, and household income. These four survey items were<br />

selected as <strong>the</strong>y were expected to influence <strong>the</strong> patterns <strong>of</strong> alternative travel options. Also<br />

provided in <strong>the</strong> first row (for comparison purposes) is <strong>the</strong> total percentage for each alternative.<br />

Examining Tables 5-28 and 5-29, several patterns <strong>of</strong> passenger preference toward certain<br />

travel alternatives to <strong>the</strong> Heartland Flyer are evident. Among trip purposes, diversion to<br />

automobile appeared to be higher than average for trips to visit family or friends and also<br />

business trips (in April only). Business travelers also appeared to prefer rental or company<br />

vehicles or commercial airplane service if <strong>the</strong> Heartland Flyer did not exist. Business travelers<br />

also reported a lower than average percentage <strong>of</strong> induced trips. These are reasonable findings, as<br />

one might not expect <strong>the</strong> business traveler to forgo his or her trip because a travel alternative is<br />

not available—business must go on as planned. There appeared to be a high percentage <strong>of</strong><br />

induced travel among travelers making leisure/recreation or vacation trips. This possibly<br />

reflected <strong>the</strong> discretionary nature <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se trips.<br />

Travel alternatives for certain age groups were, for <strong>the</strong> most part, consistent with <strong>the</strong><br />

average rates. Younger travelers appeared more likely to divert to an intercity bus than older<br />

travelers, possibly reflecting older passengers’ negative perception <strong>of</strong> intercity bus relative to<br />

o<strong>the</strong>r modes. Diversion to automobile appeared to increase with <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong> vehicles in <strong>the</strong><br />

household while bus diversion decreased with increasing household vehicles. Increasing<br />

household income also appeared to have a similar effect on diversion to automobile (increasing)<br />

and intercity bus (decreasing). These findings are consistent with expectations as <strong>the</strong>y reflect <strong>the</strong><br />

travel alternatives available to passengers. Among <strong>the</strong> age groups, household vehicles, and<br />

household income levels considered, no pattern <strong>of</strong> induced travel activity was detected.<br />

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