Measuring the Benefits of Intercity Passenger Rail: A Study

esidents in the communities served by the route may also identify new ridership potential. In
this case, the rail planner would be utilizing stated preference data, or data on the choices
travelers might make if presented with a choice or set of choices, to support decision-making.
Another example of the use of revealed and stated preference data in the context of passenger
preferences between standard and high-grade rail cars is provided by Morikawa et al. (39).
As one might expect, there are limitations and uncertainties to consider when using
revealed or stated preference data to support transportation decision-making. For example,
revealed preference data can be useful if the planner is considering investments to a route where
similar investments have been made in the past. In this case, the planner can estimate traveler
response to the proposed investments using historical data. If no historical data are available, the
use of revealed preference data from other routes is only as good as the similarity between the
two routes. Other concerns about revealed preference data for intercity passenger rail are noted
by Morikawa et al. (39). The primary concern with the use of stated preference data is the
question of whether or not a respondent, having selected from one of the alternatives posed in a
hypothetical situation, would actually behave as predicted by the data. Additionally, a
respondent may struggle to answer a question about a hypothetical situation, finding difficulty
placing their own decisions in a hypothetical or non-existent context. Given some of these
concerns, there is a high premium placed on the design of data collection efforts, particularly
those involving stated preference data, as these are likely efforts to support decision-making for
large transportation investments, such as high-speed intercity passenger rail. Subsequent
sections of this chapter provide additional discussion on the topic of the design of data collection
and surveys for intercity passenger rail.
Conventional Passenger Rail Forecasting
For the purposes of this report, “conventional” rail service is defined as intercity
passenger rail service with speeds up to 110 miles per hour, generally operating on right-of-way
owned by a freight railroad company (i.e., mixed-traffic operations). It should be noted that this
definition of “conventional” rail service is somewhat arbitrary and encompasses all Amtrak
routes outside of the Northeast Corridor spine component, which includes Amtrak’s state-
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