2007 Summaries of Wildlife Research Findings - Minnesota State ...

TABLE OF CONTENTS
413
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY …………………………………………………………………. 414
1. INTRODUCTION ………………………………………………………………………... 417
2. CLIMATE CHANGE IN MINNESOTA ……………………………………………….. 418
2.1. Climate predictions ……………………………………………………………………. 418
2.1.1. How are climate change predictions made? …………………………………… 418
2.1.2. Model uncertainty ……………………………………………………………… 419
2.1.3. Model validation ……………………………………………………………….. 420
2.1.4. Summary of current predictions ……………………………………………..… 420
2.1.5. Summary of the potential impact of climate change in Minnesota ……………. 421
2.2. Other trends to consider with climate change ………………………………………… 422
2.2.1. Human demographics …………………………………………………………... 422
2.2.2. Land use conversion and intensification ……………………………………….. 423
2.2.3. Costs of energy …………………………………………………………………. 424
3. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON LANDSCAPES AND WILDLIFE
IN MINNEOSTA …………………………………………………………...……………….. 425
3.1. General responses of plant and animal species to climate change …………………….. 425
3.1.1. Adaptation …………………………………………………………………….... 425
3.1.2. Biodiversity and new biological communities ……………………………….... 426
3.2. Potential effects of climate change on ecological provinces and systems in Minnesota. 428
3.2.1. Laurentian Mixed Forest Province ………………………………………….….. 430
3.2.2. Eastern Broadleaf Forest Province ……………………………………………... 435
3.2.3. Tallgrass Aspen Parklands Provinces …………………………………………... 439
3.2.4. Prairie Parkland Province ……………………………………………….……… 441
4. SUGGESTIONS FOR THE SECTION OF WILDLIFE’S APPROACH TO CLIMATE
CHANGE ……………………………………………………………………………….……. 443
4.1. Organization transitions …………………………………………..………………….. 443
4.2. Vision statement ……………………………………………………………………… 444
4.3. Recommendations to Section and Division leaders ……………………………..…… 445
4.3.1. Mitigation ……………………………………………………………………… 447
4.3.2. Adaptation ……………………………………………………….…………….. 447
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ……………………………………………………………….….. 451
LITERATURE CITED ……………………………………………………………………... 451
APPENDIX A: Key Species ………………………………………………………………... 462
APPENDIX B: Scientific Names of Species ……………………………………………….. 466