2007 Summaries of Wildlife Research Findings - Minnesota State ...

3. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON LANDSCAPES AND WILDLIFE IN
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MINNESOTA
Climate changes and their effects on wildlife and other natural resources have been
observed and documented already (Parmesan and Galbraith 2004). Based on these observations,
broad climate change predictions, and ecological theory, we can describe potential impacts on
Minnesota’s biological communities and wildlife populations. Models that can be used to
predict specific outcomes of climate change at small spatial scales, however, do not exist yet.
3.1. General responses of plant and animal species to climate change
3.1.1. Adaptation
Species may adapt to climate change in various ways, including acclimatization, genetic
evolution, and shifts in geographic distribution (i.e., range) to suitable sites (Noss 2001). Failure
to adapt may result in population declines and extinction. Most species responded to past
climate changes primarily by shifting their ranges (Noss 2001). However, current climate
change is predicted to occur faster than previous changes during the Quaternary Period (1.8
million years ago to present), so it is uncertain whether rates of range shifts will be sufficient.
Furthermore, range shifts may be difficult for species with poor dispersal abilities such as plants
with large seeds, small forest vertebrates, and flightless invertebrates (Noss 2001).
Peters and Darling (1985) also believed that range shifts may be too slow for predicted
climate changes, especially considering barriers to dispersal and migration. Even if native
species can migrate, the high fecundity of invasive species makes it highly probable that
invasives will be the first to arrive and dominate new sites. Habitat fragmentation, especially by
agricultural and urban development, has created many barriers to movements of plants and
animals (Noss and Csuti 1997, Iverson et al. 1999). Lack of appropriate soils, including
moisture conditions, may be another barrier for plants. The Great Lakes pose a formidable
barrier to species movements from the U.S. into Canada.
In Minnesota, it is likely that ranges of some species will shift generally from south to
north with increasing temperatures and perhaps from west to east if summers become drier. It is
predicted that ranges of many species may become smaller (Parmesan and Galbraith 2004). As
the spatial distribution of species change, some species will become extirpated from Minnesota
and others will move into Minnesota (Price and Glick 2002). More locally, especially in