2007 Summaries of Wildlife Research Findings - Minnesota State ...

will likely increase the number of invasive species in Minnesota, but it will also increase the
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reproductive capacity, survival, and competitiveness of existing invasive species and some non-
native species that have been innocuous. It is likely that invasive species will disperse faster
than the rate of climate change and be better able than other species to disperse in humandominated
and climate-altered landscapes (Hansen et al. 2001, Kusler 2006). A combination of
climate change, invasive species, and decreased area of native habitats will likely promote
homogenization of native plant communities, ultimately favoring the invasive species. Negative
effects of invasive non-natives on native species, especially endangered species, are well
documented (Pimentel et al. 2000) and can be expected to increase.
Changes in the relationships among pests and their hosts and predators can be expected,
which may amplify the magnitude of natural disturbance regimes and hasten large scale
community changes. Modeling by Logan et al. (2003) indicated that all aspects of insect
outbreak behavior would intensify as the climate warms. Warmer temperatures are providing the
opportunity for additional breeding cycles within a year. Price (2002) suggested that spruce
budworm outbreaks can be expected to become more significant because of the species’ response
to warmer temperatures and a northward shift in the ranges of several of its major avian
predators (e.g., wood warblers). Coupled with the expected increases in drought and fire, this
asynchrony between predator and prey could hasten the loss of the southern boreal forest.
3.2. Potential effects of climate change on ecological provinces and systems in Minnesota
Following a national framework, the MNDNR and the U.S. Forest Service developed an
Ecological Classification System (ECS) for ecological mapping and landscape classification in
Minnesota (MNDNR 2008a). The system uses associations of biotic and abiotic environmental
factors, including climate, geology, topography, soils, hydrology, and vegetation. There are 8
hierarchical levels of ECS units in the United States. Map units for 6 of these levels occur in
Minnesota. In order from least to most specific (i.e., from top to bottom), they are Provinces,
Sections, Subsections, Land Type Associations, Land Types, and Land Type Phases. Provinces
are units of land defined using major climate zones, native vegetation, and biomes such as
prairies, deciduous forests, or boreal forests (MNDNR 2008a). There are 4 provinces in
Minnesota—Laurentian Mixed Forest, Eastern Broadleaf Forest, Tallgrass Aspen Parklands, and