Greece - US Department of State

Greece 791
The Arab World and Africa
25. Impelled by such factors as the need to broaden diplomatic
support for Greece and concern for Greeks living abroad, the junta has
made efforts during the past two years to improve its standing with
Arab and sub-Sahara African governments. Greece has entered a supply
and training agreement with the Libyan Air Force and has exchanged
high-level visits with several West African countries.
III. Prospects and Contingencies
26. In more than four years of power, the leaders have shown themselves
adept in maintaining their control. Their prospects for continuing
to do so now appear good. Such factors as their own cohesiveness,
a passive populace, a contented army, an efficient police, no strong foreign
pressures for change, and a booming economy all point towards
their continued survival. But any of these and other favorable ones could
change unexpectedly, bringing on a new situation. Some combination
of internal failures, outside developments, and foreign pressures could
cause serious trouble for the leadership; it is even conceivable that the
entire military regime might be ousted altogether. For example:
a. The cohesiveness that has characterized the military leadership
since the 1967 coup could erode in time or fracture suddenly over some
major issue. In such circumstances Papadopoulos might be replaced
by another member of the junta or by another secret army clique; or
the present system might give way to some form of “collective” leadership
with no single individual exercising much influence over events.
b. If over time resistance groups in exile and the traditional party
politicians now inactive were able to coordinate their efforts and organize
popular support, they might pose a threat to the junta, encourage
divisions between it and the armed forces, or at least constitute a
source of serious harassment, possibly by terrorist tactics.
c. The Greek economy and political system will remain heavily
dependent on developments taking place outside the country or over
which its government has no control. For example, a serious setback
in a conflict with the Turks over Cyprus could lead to the junta’s downfall.
A serious recession in Europe would sharply reduce worker remittances
from West Germany, cut tourist revenues, contract a principal
market for exports, and bring on depressed economic conditions
in Greece, with consequent trouble for its rulers.
d. In addition, the regime—already an international pariah in the
eyes of some groups and smaller countries in Europe—would be vulnerable
were it to face concerted opposition from the principal European
powers. It would be very much more so were it to encounter active
hostility from the US Government as well. In such circumstances
the junta’s survival could be seriously threatened.