CockburnCoast - Western Australian Planning Commission

CockburnCoast
5.6 Population forecasts
within the area of
influence
The Cockburn coast development will contribute the main
population growth within the area of influence over the next 15 years.
As the population grows there are likely to be many changes within
the age structure which will have a significant economic and social
impact on the area of influence. Table 5.3 shows the forecast
proportional change in age structure for the area of influence, the
towns of Cottesloe and Mosman Park and the Perth metropolitan
area between 2006 and 2021.
0-9
10-19
Table 5.3: Proportional change in age structure
Cities of Cockburn
and Fremantle
Towns of Cottesloe and
Mosman Park
Perth metropolitan area
2006 2021
Prop'n
2006 2021
Prop'n
2006 2021
Prop'n
Change Change Change
0.2%
12.0% 11.2% - 0.8% 10.8% 11.0% 12.6% 11.4% - 1.2%
14.1% 11.9% - 2.2% 14.2% 12.2% - 2.0% 14.3% 12.3% - 2.0%
Broadly, the demographics show:
• The cities of Cockburn and Fremantle are forecast to
demonstrate a decline in young children in line with the
metropolitan average. However, the towns of Cottesloe
and Mosman Park are likely to see a slight rise as young
couples move into the redevelopment areas and start a
family. It is anticipated that this trend will occur in the
Cockburn coast structure plan area. All areas have a
greater proportional decrease of adolescents and
teenagers (10-19 years).
• Cottesloe and Mosman Park have a decreasing proportion
of 20-29 year olds, while Cockburn has the greatest
proportional increase. This is likely to be a reflection of
young independents leaving home in the coastal suburbs
and young households moving into more affordable
suburbs such as Cockburn. If the Cockburn coast area is
to achieve a demographic and household mix, affordable
accommodation and tenure mix will be the key.
• There is a proportional increase in people aged 30-39
years in the coastal suburbs which is at a higher level than
the Perth average, indicating that where possible,
established households are purchasing in beach suburbs
close to schools. While Cockburn has a decreasing
proportion of people aged 30-39 years, the Cockburn
coast development may provide an opportunity to remain
close to family and friends and still own a modern coastal
property.
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80+
0.9% 0.5%
12.9% 13.9% 13.3% 11.6% - 1.8% 14.0% 14.5%
1.8% 2.7% 0.5%
13.9% 15.7% 12.5% 15.2% 14.6% 15.0%
15.5% 13.4% - 2.1% 14.5% 13.1% - 1.4% 14.9% 13.4% - 1.5%
13.7% 12.1% - 1.5% 14.3% 12.5% - 1.8% 13.0% 12.5% - 0.5%
2.1% 1.1% 2.0%
8.3% 10.4% 9.7% 10.8% 8.0% 10.0%
1.4% 3.3% 1.8%
6.0% 7.4% 5.3% 8.6% 5.2% 7.0%
0.3% 0.5%
3.7% 4.0% 5.3% 4.9% - 0.4% 3.3% 3.8%
Total 199,010 246,380 15,508 16,920 1,445,077 1,848,900
Source: ABS (2006) Census of Population & Housing & WAPC (2005) WA Tomorrow Forecasts