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(GP/GT) for Additional Water Supply in the Lower Rio Grande

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economic techniques because cash flows are accounted on a real-time, common<br />

dollar basis. This common dollar basis is obta<strong>in</strong>ed by discount<strong>in</strong>g all<br />

after-tax cash values to a PV cash value us<strong>in</strong>g a discount rate. This discount<br />

rate is a percentage by which future value dollars are reduced year to year to<br />

a present value. Because <strong>the</strong> discount process substantially reduces <strong>the</strong> PV of<br />

projects with economic lives >5 a year, selection of a discount rate is a very<br />

important consideration. A 15% discount rate is a commonly accepted discount<br />

rate <strong>in</strong> develop<strong>in</strong>g m<strong>in</strong>eral resources while a 26% discount rate allows <strong>for</strong> a<br />

higher risk typically associated with gas and oil development. Because <strong>the</strong><br />

cascaded or multi-use of <strong>the</strong> geopressured-geo<strong>the</strong>rmal br<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong>creases <strong>the</strong><br />

complexity while also diversify<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> product mix, a 15% discount rate was<br />

assumed.<br />

Results of this study are presented <strong>in</strong> a discounted payback and NPV<br />

analysis. (The breakeven analysis was not used because of <strong>the</strong> array of<br />

comb<strong>in</strong>ations available and assign<strong>in</strong>g market ratios between each product).<br />

Discounted payback is def<strong>in</strong>ed as <strong>the</strong> m<strong>in</strong>imum time required <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> project to<br />

generate enough discounted revenues to equal <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>itial <strong>in</strong>vestment of <strong>the</strong><br />

project. Investors and lend<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>stitutions typically use this method to<br />

assess <strong>the</strong> time to recover <strong>the</strong>ir <strong>in</strong>vestment. The shorter <strong>the</strong> payback, <strong>the</strong><br />

less risky <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>vestment because market conditions are less likely to change<br />

<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> shorter period of time than <strong>in</strong> a longer period of time. NPV is ano<strong>the</strong>r<br />

method of analysis that determ<strong>in</strong>es <strong>the</strong> net value added to an <strong>in</strong>vestment. As<br />

<strong>the</strong> name implies, <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>itial <strong>in</strong>vestment is subtracted from <strong>the</strong> present value<br />

of operat<strong>in</strong>g revenues less costs. Aga<strong>in</strong>, <strong>in</strong>vestors and lend<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>stitutions<br />

typically use this method of analysis to assess <strong>the</strong> overall profitability of a<br />

project, select<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> project with <strong>the</strong> greatest NPV.<br />

DESALINATION ECONOMICS<br />

There has not been sufficient replication under similar conditions to<br />

warrant extrapolation of prior economic data. Regardless of <strong>the</strong> desal<strong>in</strong>ation<br />

process, <strong>the</strong>re are a number of variables that will affect <strong>the</strong> cost of a<br />

facility:<br />

1. Quality and quantity of raw geopressured fluid<br />

45

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