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THEORY Emerging Trends in Theoretical Research The role of theory in astrophysics has evolved in ways that reflect the increasing complexity of observations. Today, theoretical astrophysicists use analytical methods to devise speculative scenarios that account for new observations, they carry out detailed computational simulations of complex systems, and they develop new methods and frameworks for testing models against observational data. Together these methods propel progress, often in unforeseen ways. For example, the discussion of gravitational microlensing in the 1980s led to new observational constraints on the nature of dark matter in the 1990s and now provides a powerful pathway to the discovery of exoplanets. Similarly, recent observations of the cosmic microwave background have provided precision measurements of the age and content of the universe, but only because the theoretical framework had been developed over the preceding several decades, starting with new, bold theories about the exponential expansion rate of universe in its first few moments. Moreover, theory informed the design of experiments, and enabled measurements to be extracted. The result is a spectacularly successful “standard model” of the universe, which experiments recommended in this report will test even more stringently. Several important trends are increasing the scope of theoretical activity and enhancing the roles of theorists: • The boundary between astrophysics theory and high-energy physics theory has become increasingly blurred as astrophysical observations play a growing role in particle physics phenomenology. Much of the information we have about physics beyond the standard model of particle physics comes from astrophysics; particle and astrophysical theorists are collaborating to push back the frontiers of fundamental physics. As an example, particle physics theory provides the prime candidates for potential dark matter particles (WIMPs and axions) with properties that are constrained by both high energy physics and cosmology. • Large numerical simulations are increasingly central to progress in astrophysics. Rapid advances in computational capabilities enable large-scale computations that are necessary in order to understand the complex phenomena being uncovered by current telescopes. They will be essential for predicting and understanding gravitational wave signals, and will enable threedimensional simulations of supernova explosions and of the formation of the first stars in the universe, for example (Figure 5-2). • As the cost and scope of new observational facilities have grown, theorists play an increasing role in their conceptual development, in making the science case for funding them, and in analyzing the results. Examples include new gravitational wave observatories, and modeling the distribution of stable planetary systems to inform future searches. • Theorists provide visualizations of complex physical phenomena that facilitate deeper understanding, that are appealing to the general public, and that attract talented young people to the field. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 5-4
FIGURE 5‐2 Simulated image of gravitational radiation from two merging black holes using NASA's Columbia supercomputer. A movie of this simulation can be found at http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/mpg/146898main_viz_shiftingall_21.320x240.mpg (Credit: Chris Henze, NASA.) Theoretical Challenges for the Next Decade A healthy theory program advances science on a broad front, and supports a range of targeted activities as well as the exploration of radical new ideas that inspire missions for the distant future. For this decade, the Science Frontier Panels (SFPs) and Chapter 2 of this report have identified questions on the forefront of astrophysics, several of which present specific and significant theoretical challenges. The Cosmology and Fundamental Physics panel raises the questions: What is the nature of dark energy and why is the universe accelerating What is the nature of inflation and what can we learn from the early universe about the fundamental laws of physics New observations are central to providing the necessary constraints to address these questions, but theories are ultimately being put to the test. One of the upcoming challenges associated with the Stars and Stellar Evolution Panel is the threedimensional simulation of the magnetic field observed in the solar corona using the Solar Dynamics Observer and other solar observatories. The quality of the data that is now being garnered presents a strong challenge to simulators. Success in explaining the behavior of the solar magnetic field will pay large dividends as astrophysicists attempt to understand how fields behave in other environments. Meanwhile the Galactic Neighborhood panel’s prime research topics involved study of the circumgalactic and interstellar media seen as complex ecosystems. These are both topics where sophisticated simulations go hand in hand with the observational program. A third question concerns the fossil record of star formation as a means of understanding the first stars and the subsequent assembly of galaxies like our own. Here the theories of stellar evolution and stellar dynamics are crucial. The fourth research area, the use of the galaxy to study dark matter (Figure 5-3), has already attracted the attention of a large community of theoretical physicists. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 5-5
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fi
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COMMITTEE FOR A DECADAL SURVEY OF A
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Panel on Stars and Stellar Evolutio
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DOUGLAS FINKBEINER, Harvard Univers
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SPACE STUDIES BOARD CHARLES F. KENN
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activities 2 that have emerged from
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In addition to the 27 panel meeting
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Acknowledgment of Reviewers This re
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The Accelerating Universe 2-26 The
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APPENDIXES A Summary of Science Fro
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light up the universe, marking the
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RECOMMENDED PROGRAM Maintaining a b
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TABLE ES.4 Space: Recommended Activ
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Cosmic Dawn: Searching for the Firs
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this imprint would both probe funda
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important outcome will be to open u
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estimated to be on the order of $20
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observatories. For NASA an annual b
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surveys of large fields, enabling s
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RECOMMENDATION: U.S. investors in a
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departments and the community as a
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dominate spending; (2) private-publ
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us was certainly evident during the
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BOX 2-1 Other Worlds Around Other S
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FIGURE 2‐2 The source 3C 75, show
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FIGURE 2‐3 Numerical simulation o
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FIGURE 2‐4 Left panel: Image of t
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FIGURE 2‐6 Top: Schematic of the
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Most stars with masses smaller than
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BOX 2-2 The Origin of Planets After
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send material raining into the cent
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BOX 2-4 Lifecycles in Galaxies One
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Stars Stars are the most observable
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ubiquitous high-energy charged-part
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The Nature of Inflation As describe
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Page 80 and 81: Studying the properties of neutron
Page 82 and 83: FIGURE 2‐14 A possible pathway is
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Page 90 and 91: TABLE 3-1 Currently Operating OIR F
Page 92 and 93: 29% 1990 44% US Priv US Fed Other E
Page 94 and 95: CONCLUSION: Complex and high-cost f
Page 96 and 97: Space Observatories The Laser Inter
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Page 101 and 102: 4 Astronomy in Society Astronomy of
Page 103 and 104: FIGURE 4‐2 The dust sculptures of
Page 105 and 106: FIGURE 4‐5 President Obama takes
Page 107 and 108: Astronomy Inspires in the Classroom
Page 109 and 110: teaching the scientific method. The
Page 111 and 112: where the fraction of astronomers h
Page 113 and 114: Percentage of AAS Membership by Fie
Page 115 and 116: 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 PL SO IM AG SF IN S
Page 117 and 118: FIGURE 4‐12 Number (top panel) an
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Page 130 and 131: TABLE 5‐2 Support for astrophysic
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Page 134 and 135: FIGURE 5‐7 Highly cited HST publi
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Page 146 and 147: RECOMMENDATION: NASA and NSF suppor
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Page 167 and 168: Box 7.1 Implementing a Cosmic Dawn
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Recommendations for New Space Activ
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FIGURE 7.4 Science accomplishments
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significance of mergers in the buil
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independent advice committee review
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committee review. It could range be
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Laboratory Astrophysics As describe
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Recommendations for New Ground-Base
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Program for instrumentation and fac
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excel at high spectral and spatial
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The committee reviewed a technical
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FIGURE 7.10 ACTA would be, like the
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Advanced Technologies and Instrumen
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LISA as soon as possible subject to
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FIGURE 7.14 DOE recommended program
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A Summary of Science Frontiers Pane
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PLANETARY SYSTEMS AND STAR FORMATIO
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A preliminary recommended program w
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certified as independent work perfo
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penalty based on an assessment of s
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The results show excellent correlat
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$12 MILLION TO $40 MILLION RANGE CM
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decadal research strategy with reco
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CFP CHIPSat CIP CGRO CMB CMU CoBRA
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NRC NSB NSF NSF-AGS NSF-ARC NSF-AST
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