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us was certainly evident during the past decade. Here we list just a few of the most far-reaching examples. The surprising discovery in 1998 that the expansion of the universe is accelerating rather than slowing, due to the repulsive gravity of dark energy, has changed the way we think about the evolution and destiny of the universe and has challenged our understanding of physics at the most fundamental level. In the coming decade, an optimized and coordinated set of facilities on the ground and in space will test whether the simplest hypothesis-dark energy is the quantum energy of the vacuum⎯is the correct explanation or if something more exotic is needed—as must be the case for the inflationary epoch, an earlier period of acceleration. It is even possible that we will need a modification of Einstein’s general relativity. Either way, the implications for both astronomy and physics are profound. Telescopes are time machines: because light travels across the cosmos at a finite speed, the most distant objects probe the furthest back in time. The 13.7 billion year old cosmic microwave background is seen in the millimeter band. The latest record holder (early 2010) for the most distant object is a gammaray burst that occurred 13.1 billion years ago when the universe was 0.6 billion years old. Detected by a NASA Explorer Program satellite called Swift, its distance was measured by follow-up observations from telescopes on the ground. In the coming decade, powerful new observatories on the ground and in space will allow us to push back to still earlier times and glimpse the end of the cosmic dark ages signaled by the formation of the first-ever luminous sources in the universe⎯the first generation of stars. Closer to home, the last decade has seen the discovery of well over four hundred planets orbiting nearby stars. While the existence of extra-solar planets had long been anticipated, the astonishing discovery is that the planets and their orbits seem to be nothing like our own. In the coming decade, new facilities on the ground and in space will enable us to detect potentially life-bearing planets similar to the Earth. Looking forward, the most promising areas for revolutionary discoveries are highlighted in the following subsections. This is indeed a special time in history. The unexpected can be expected with confidence. The Discovery of Habitable Planets We are rapidly building our knowledge of nearby analogs to our own Solar System’s planets, most recently with the launch of NASA’s Kepler mission. The salient feature of the planetary menagerie of which we are currently aware is its diversity⎯in every measureable sense⎯of the properties of the planets as well as the properties of the stars around which they are found. We are also improving our understanding of the planet formation process, and ALMA is expected to unveil the birthing of new worlds. Detection methods till now have only been able to discover massive planets rivaling the giants in our Solar System (Figure 2-1 upper) or larger (Figure 2-1 lower). The most profound discovery in the coming decade may be the detection of potentially habitable Earth-like planets orbiting other stars. To find evidence that life exists beyond our Earth is a longstanding dream of humanity, and it is now coming within our reach. The search for life around other stars is a multi-stage process. Although JWST may be able to take the first steps, more complex and specialized instrumentation is also needed, requiring a longer-term program. First, the frequency with which Earth-sized planets occur in zones around stars where liquids such as water are stable on planetary surfaces must be measured (see Box 2-1). Stars will then be targeted that are sufficiently close to us that the light of the companion planets can be separated from the glare of the parent star and studied in great detail; this will allow us to find signatures of molecules that indicate a potentially habitable environment. Here, the opportunities are suddenly bountiful, as we have understood over this past decade that, for example, stars much lower in mass than our Sun may have orbiting habitable planets that are much easier to spot. Thus, the plan for the coming decade is to perform the necessary target reconnaissance surveys to inform next-generation mission designs while simultaneously PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 2-2
completing the technology development to bring the goals within reach. This decade of dedicated preparatory work is needed so that, one day, parents and children could gaze at the sky and know that a place somewhat like home exists around “THAT” star, where life might be gaining a toehold somewhere along the long and precarious evolutionary process that led, on Earth, to humankind. And perhaps it is staring back at us! FIGURE 2‐1 Upper: Montage of some of the first extra‐solar systems discovered using the radial velocity technique, compared with our inner solar system. (Credit: Geoff Marcy, University of California, Berkeley, and Paul Butler, Carnegie Institution for Science.) Lower Adaptive optics image obtained at the Gemini and Keck Observatories of three planetary mass objects orbiting around the nearby A star HR 8799. The bright light from the star has been subtracted to enable the faint objects to be seen. A dust disk lies just outside the orbits of the three planets; iust as in our solar system the Kuiper Belt lies outside the orbit of Neptune at 30 AU. (Credit: National Research Council of Canada— Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics, C. Marois & Keck Observatory.) PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 2-3
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Page 4 and 5: THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fi
Page 7 and 8: COMMITTEE FOR A DECADAL SURVEY OF A
Page 9 and 10: Panel on Stars and Stellar Evolutio
Page 11 and 12: DOUGLAS FINKBEINER, Harvard Univers
Page 13: SPACE STUDIES BOARD CHARLES F. KENN
Page 16 and 17: activities 2 that have emerged from
Page 18 and 19: In addition to the 27 panel meeting
Page 20 and 21: Acknowledgment of Reviewers This re
Page 22 and 23: The Accelerating Universe 2-26 The
Page 24 and 25: APPENDIXES A Summary of Science Fro
Page 26 and 27: light up the universe, marking the
Page 28 and 29: RECOMMENDED PROGRAM Maintaining a b
Page 30 and 31: TABLE ES.4 Space: Recommended Activ
Page 32 and 33: Cosmic Dawn: Searching for the Firs
Page 34 and 35: this imprint would both probe funda
Page 36 and 37: important outcome will be to open u
Page 38 and 39: estimated to be on the order of $20
Page 40 and 41: observatories. For NASA an annual b
Page 42 and 43: surveys of large fields, enabling s
Page 44 and 45: RECOMMENDATION: U.S. investors in a
Page 46 and 47: departments and the community as a
Page 48 and 49: dominate spending; (2) private-publ
Page 52 and 53: BOX 2-1 Other Worlds Around Other S
Page 54 and 55: FIGURE 2‐2 The source 3C 75, show
Page 56 and 57: FIGURE 2‐3 Numerical simulation o
Page 58 and 59: FIGURE 2‐4 Left panel: Image of t
Page 60 and 61: FIGURE 2‐6 Top: Schematic of the
Page 62 and 63: Most stars with masses smaller than
Page 64 and 65: BOX 2-2 The Origin of Planets After
Page 66 and 67: send material raining into the cent
Page 68 and 69: BOX 2-4 Lifecycles in Galaxies One
Page 70 and 71: Stars Stars are the most observable
Page 72 and 73: ubiquitous high-energy charged-part
Page 74 and 75: The Nature of Inflation As describe
Page 76 and 77: FIGURE 2‐11 Pie chart showing the
Page 78 and 79: An important clue to the nature of
Page 80 and 81: Studying the properties of neutron
Page 82 and 83: FIGURE 2‐14 A possible pathway is
Page 84 and 85: partners and makes recommendations
Page 86 and 87: As astronomy research has blossomed
Page 88 and 89: are increasingly relevant. The Euro
Page 90 and 91: TABLE 3-1 Currently Operating OIR F
Page 92 and 93: 29% 1990 44% US Priv US Fed Other E
Page 94 and 95: CONCLUSION: Complex and high-cost f
Page 96 and 97: Space Observatories The Laser Inter
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4 Astronomy in Society Astronomy of
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FIGURE 4‐2 The dust sculptures of
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FIGURE 4‐5 President Obama takes
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Astronomy Inspires in the Classroom
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teaching the scientific method. The
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where the fraction of astronomers h
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Percentage of AAS Membership by Fie
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0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 PL SO IM AG SF IN S
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FIGURE 4‐12 Number (top panel) an
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Professional training needs to acco
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assistant and associate professor p
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fluctuating level of funding for as
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THEORY Emerging Trends in Theoretic
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Central to the Galaxies across Cosm
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TABLE 5‐2 Support for astrophysic
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would normally be for a five-year p
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FIGURE 5‐7 Highly cited HST publi
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y optical and radio astronomers are
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FIGURE 5‐8 Number of PhDs per yea
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ated by the Program Prioritization
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nulling interferometry. The appropr
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FIGURE 5‐9 The richness of the su
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RECOMMENDATION: NASA and NSF suppor
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FIGURE 6‐1. All sky map as observ
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FIGURE 6‐3 NASA mission cost over
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FIGURE 6‐5 Gemini North with Sout
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TOWARD FUTURE PROJECTS, MISSIONS, A
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3. Investment in new and upgraded i
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etween several competing elements i
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7 Realizing the Opportunities The p
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FIGURE 7.1 Survey time line showing
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SCIENCE OBJECTIVES FOR THE DECADE T
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Box 7.1 Implementing a Cosmic Dawn
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JWST, with its superb mid-infrared
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optical imaging of brighter galaxie
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Box 7.3 Implementing the Physics of
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FIGURE 7.2 Multiwavelength images o
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Recommendations for New Space Activ
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FIGURE 7.4 Science accomplishments
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significance of mergers in the buil
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independent advice committee review
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committee review. It could range be
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Laboratory Astrophysics As describe
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Recommendations for New Ground-Base
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Program for instrumentation and fac
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excel at high spectral and spatial
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The committee reviewed a technical
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FIGURE 7.10 ACTA would be, like the
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Advanced Technologies and Instrumen
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LISA as soon as possible subject to
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FIGURE 7.14 DOE recommended program
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A Summary of Science Frontiers Pane
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PLANETARY SYSTEMS AND STAR FORMATIO
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A preliminary recommended program w
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certified as independent work perfo
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penalty based on an assessment of s
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The results show excellent correlat
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$12 MILLION TO $40 MILLION RANGE CM
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decadal research strategy with reco
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CFP CHIPSat CIP CGRO CMB CMU CoBRA
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NRC NSB NSF NSF-AGS NSF-ARC NSF-AST
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